BTC's current price is stuck 2% below the 'value anchor', with bulls having only the last moat at 115K; if it breaks down with volume, it will directly test the liquidity vacuum at 111K; conversely, should it return above 118K, short covering could trigger a thousand-point long candle.

Key interval structure and trading volume distribution
1. Value anchor: POC=117901, with Down Volume accounting for 64% below, indicating clear bearish dominance.
2. High trading volume area:
• 118632–118876 (HVN group), densely packed above, strong resistance in the short term.
• 114976–115220 (HVN), providing buffer for bulls below; breaking this will trigger acceleration.
3. Low trading volume gap:
• 111808–112539 (LVN area), if the price breaks 115K, there will be no support here, making it prone to flash crashes.
• 122532–123994 (LVN area), if it breaks above 118876 with volume, it can quickly reach 123K.
4. 70% trading volume coverage area: 114001–121801, current price is at the lower edge, on the verge of short-term overselling.

Momentum verification
• Down Volume in the POC area is 64%, short-term bears control the market;
• Trading volume in the last 4 hours has shrunk to 0.8 times the 20-day average, waiting for volume to confirm the direction.
• The lower Bollinger Band at 114551 has not been broken for 1 hour; if it breaks with volume, the trend will turn bearish.

Market cycle judgment
Medium term: The weekly chart is still in an ascending channel, but the 14-day contract position is -3.9%, and the long-short ratio continues to decline, indicating the 'end of high-level consolidation.' Short term: If it fails to hold 115K, it will initiate a C wave pullback to 111K; if it regains 118K, it will return to the upper boundary of the range at 123K.

Trading strategy
Aggressive: Short with light position at the current price of 116291, with a stop loss at 116800 (above the HVN), target 115000 (risk-reward ratio = 2.1).
Conservative: Wait for a pullback in the range of 115000–115200, then look for a 15m reversal candle + Up Volume > 60% to go long, with a stop loss at 114500 and a target of 117400 (risk-reward ratio = 2.4).
Cautious: Break above 118876 with volume > 1.5 times to chase long, stop loss at 118200, target 123000 (risk-reward ratio = 2.8).

Risk warning
• If 115K breaks down with high volume long bearish candle, the strategy becomes invalid, and flip to short.
• Sudden macro negative news or a crash in US stocks will exacerbate volatility; strictly maintain 1% account risk.

LP market making suggestions
Suggest placing double-sided LP in the range of 115000–118000, reason:
1. This range covers 70% of trading volume, with low slippage;
2. There are LVNs below 115K and above 118K; once the price exits the range, it will quickly move away, making market making yield/high impermanent risk ratio;
3. Funding rates are slightly positive, allowing for extra interest on hedging short positions.

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