$ETH

Just came back from partying and the chart immediately shows a somewhat surreal green pump from below. Let's quickly assess to see the direction for light trading (It's not worth holding much here as these are still near the last pump waves)

1. Quick assessment

The current H1 candle has bounced very strongly, closing almost with a full green body after the spring pullback from 4224.

However:

EMA(9) is still below EMA(21) → The short-term structure has not clearly reversed yet.

EMA(99) is high at 4440 → The medium-term trend still faces pressure above.

2. OBV is not yet positive:

OBV just had a slight increase after a strong drop but has not surpassed the previous peak → does not confirm that big money is flowing in consistently.

It can be understood that OBV is just technically recovering, not reflecting a sustainable buying force.

3. KDJ has bounced strongly but is easy to trap:

K is at 65, J is at 113 → The bounce is too quick, with a possibility of overheating if the next candle does not maintain momentum.

The D-line is still at a low level (42) → If K drops again, it’s very easy to form a trap pattern and continue to fall.

4. RSI has bounced but has not broken out:

RSI(6) is at ~59 → Close to the overbought zone, but does not show clear momentum yet. If RSI turns back immediately, there’s a high chance of a “stop-loss” scenario, not a new trend.

🎯 Conclusion – This is a bounce without accumulation, driven by psychology:

A slight FOMO feeling after hitting the bottom at 4224.

There is no accumulation of volume, OBV, or EMA confirming a sustainable increase.

It is likely a “test increase” to check for selling pressure, or to force shorts into a trap again.

Strategy:

Wait for the price to return to test the 4260–4280 zone, see if it can hold the base → if there is low volume + RSI holds strong, then Long.

Otherwise, if it pushes up near 4400 with weak volume + RSI/KDJ too hot → consider a light Short, as there is a high chance of a drop.