$ETH

Yesterday I hoped the D1 would close above 4367 but it did not achieve that and I had to cut my test orders because D1 closed quite poorly, the bullish structure is not clear but the liquidation of Long positions below is quite dangerous.

D1 – Medium-term frame:

The D1 candle has closed below the EMA9 for the first time after a strong uptrend, confirming an initial weakness.

RSI(6) has decreased to 47, not yet in the oversold zone, still has the potential for sideways movement or a light test deeper.

=> D1 shows that MM is considering, not wanting to create panic. This could be a "price holding" phase to mislead and attract more short traps.

D3 – Long-term frame:

The D3 candle remains above EMA9 (4076) despite adjusting. If D3 closes above this line → the medium-term bullish structure is still maintained.

RSI(6) is still above 60, and the indicators have not broken the bullish structure.

3D Volume is not too high → this is not a large-volume sell-off, but leans towards technical adjustment.

=> D3 is quite healthy, MM still has the potential to pull more if the next candle creates a doji / spinning top / beautiful tail.

🧩 Possible scenarios of MM

1. Sideways, accumulate keeping the price around EMA9 D1 & D3

Attracting inexperienced shorts.

Funding decreases before pushing up.

Could lightly test 4160-4220–4250 (the nearest bottom) then pull back strongly to create a short-term bullish divergence.

2. Pretend to break slightly, then pump quickly

Especially suitable if MM wants to “make the final wave”

Will drop fake to EMA21 D1 (~4130), then pull back extremely strongly and push quickly above 4600–4700.

Confirmation signal: the daily candle has a long wick, strong volume increase + closing above EMA9 or close to EMA9.

3. Real break (lower scenario)

If D3 closes below EMA9 + funding continues to flip down quickly but without a pump.