$ETH

Quick multi-timeframe analysis and some possible scenarios

1, H1

The band is small, price is moving sideways right near the mid-band.

OBV is quiet, low volume → clearly MM is in a sideways accumulation, not yet choosing a direction.

RSI neutral ~47 → no panic selling, but also not a strong buy.

-> H1 confirms this is a pause, consolidating force.

2, H4

EMA9, EMA21, and EMA99 are converging → the market is temporarily balanced after a sharp drop.

The small red candles are decreasing, volume is dropping → selling pressure is weakening.

RSI ~37 is still a bit weak but no longer declining.

-> H4 shows that the downtrend has slowed, likely a “resting phase” rather than a trend break.

3, D1

Still above EMA9 (4.358), meaning the major trend has not broken.

The small red candles after the sell-off are decreasing, OBV remains high → indicating that there is still buying support.

RSI ~59 → still in the uptrend zone, just correcting.

-> D1 indicates a short-term profit-taking pause, not a major distribution.

4, D3 – EMA

The trend remains extremely strong, staying well above EMA9 (4.041).

High volume red candles appear at the peak → a warning, but still standing above support, not breaking down.

RSI ~75 is a bit high (overbought) → needs to cool down before going further.

-> D3 gives a signal of a temporary peak, but not the final peak of the cycle.

✅ Possible scenarios

Scenario 1:

This week (17–23/8): sideways - slight pump to test the 4,500 – 4,600 range.

End of August – beginning of September: may break the old peak or create a new peak around 4,800 – 5,000.

Mid-September: a strong dump towards EMA21 D1 (~4,100) or EMA9 D3 (~4,000) for MM to take profits. (65% probability)

Scenario 2:

Dump straight down below 4k (35% probability) in September, starting to accumulate for a new cycle, creating lower peaks. This will occur if this H1 range breaks out with consecutive large red H1 candles breaking the Bollinger Bands, waiting for at least 2 red candles to break the Bollinger Bands, and the third candle seeks an entry point based on a 15m peak pullback.