Last week's PPI data was released, and the market immediately adjusted its interest rate cut expectations. Bitcoin surged and then fell back, triggering over $1 billion in long liquidations. Altcoins have been hot these past two weeks, with both market capitalization and leverage reaching new highs, but such accumulation will eventually need to be liquidated.
The real key is this Friday—Powell's speech at the global central bank meeting. The market generally believes that the pace of interest rate cuts will be clarified. It's important to note that the last rate cut was in 2020, and that easing drove U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, and commodities to soar, only tightening in 2022.
Experience tells us that interest rate policy itself is often not the turning point; what truly plays a decisive role is the market's trading on 'expectations.' The ETF in 2021 is an example—prices rose during the rumors but peaked on the day of the announcement.
So this Friday, with expectations and reality intertwined, it is highly likely to become a dividing point for market trends.