Crypto飞哥

Expose an OTC merchant, everyone be careful
A friend sold U at this OTC merchant, and within 5 minutes of receiving the money, their bank card was frozen. Then they received a call from the Nanjing Public Security Bureau saying that the money received was dirty money. The police demanded a deduction of over 400,000 before they would unfreeze it. Everyone should avoid this merchant, as it is not only dirty money but also first-hand dirty money. This is too dangerous.

$VIRTUAL has almost doubled during this period. When I recommended it at the square on April 12, it was nearly at the lowest point of the market. I also mentioned that I had a feeling there would be a significant rise the following week. The market has been quite strong, basically following my expected direction. When I recommended it, it was at 0.5477, and now it's at 1.6384, with an estimated profit of around 230%. Currently, the cryptocurrency market is in a structural bull market. Don't fantasize about all coins rising together like before; now only some coins with heat and capital inflow will rise. This increasingly tests everyone's ability to pick coins, which is why people say making money is becoming more difficult. Previously, a beginner could enter the market and make money just by buying randomly. Now, you need to study data from various aspects and have a deep understanding of projects to filter out valuable coins in this market. Has anyone kept up with this $VIRTUAL ? Don't say that altcoins have no opportunities; there are plenty of opportunities, it just depends on how you explore.

HYPE is also a makeshift team, and the official account can be hacked.
Why does it feel like HYPE is encountering issues every few days?
I still don't believe HYPE can replace centralized exchanges.

Essentially, HYPE is no different from DYDX or GMX. Perhaps there are innovations in some aspects, but fundamentally they are the same.

I sold my long-held DYDX and GMX in the first half of last year.
The reason for selling is simple: after experiencing their products a few times, I found that playing contracts on-chain is very inconvenient. The experience is nowhere near as good as that of exchanges. This kind of on-chain contract gameplay is unlikely to have a large audience in the short term. It's not like buying spot; you just buy the spot and transfer it to your wallet. With contracts, you often have to keep an eye on them, which is very inconvenient. Especially with large funds, in the event of problems, it can easily lead to financial losses. Based on these reasons, I sold all of them.

Personally, I believe decentralized exchanges will never have as many users as centralized exchanges. HYPE will also not surpass BNB. Doing contracts on decentralized exchanges is too difficult for newcomers. Contract trading often requires a lot of time to monitor the market, and the procedures on-chain are overly complicated. Unless one day, due to policy reasons, centralized exchanges stop offering contract trading, then perhaps HYPE will have a chance.

ETH upgrade on May 7th, 2023, ETH-related altcoins are expected to be speculated in the short term. If you want to make short-term trades, you can consider laying low on ETH-related altcoins, but I advise everyone to only engage in short-term trading and not long-term. Take profit and run.

Coins in the Ethereum ecosystem, such as ARB, OP, ZK, and STRK are unlocked over several years. With the bull market coming, institutions cannot sell their coins, making it difficult to drive up prices due to insufficient benefits. Other coins in the Ethereum L2 ecosystem such as RDNT, GMX, and staking sector coins like SSV and ETHFI are all part of the Ethereum family, and I do not recommend long-term participation. If even the father, ARB, and OP are struggling, and the grandfather, ETH, is weak, how can you expect the grandson to have a bright future? Does this mean there won't be any price increases?

Of course, there will be price increases. For example, if other altcoins surge by ten times, Ethereum-related altcoins might only increase by 1 to 2 times. Therefore, I only engage in short-term trades, not long-term ones. The advantage of valuable coins is their high liquidity; liquidity is a very good reference factor.

Now looking at the altcoins that surge significantly, they are either fully circulating or have a circulation rate of over 70%. Institutional investors hold large amounts, and they can profit from driving up prices. With the bull market coming, they will have the motivation to push prices higher.

The PI coin has currently dropped more than 70% from its peak
and the daily trading volume of PI is still above 30 million
which is much stronger than many VC coins and previous popular meme coins
Many altcoins now have daily trading volumes of only a few hundred thousand U, and their liquidity is almost gone. Although PI coin is mocked by many as a 'grandma coin', the consensus and community of PI coin can at least rank in the top 10 in the crypto space, it has high recognition, good liquidity, and a strong community. I will buy some PI coins at the right time, and if there is still a market this year, a 2-3 times increase is the minimum expectation.

This recent rebound is not bad, we bought the dip around 0.39 and it rebounded to 0.711, with a profit of over 80%. The coins I selected for everyone are relatively stable, such as SUI and CRV, and others have also performed quite steadily. The reason I recommended CRV during the bottoming phase is because, looking at this period, the rebound has also been quite good, outperforming most altcoins. However, the performance of AAVE, which is also in the DeFi sector, has weakened, which is a bit puzzling. When choosing altcoins to buy the dip during each decline, if the project's fundamental operation is sound, like CRV, its mechanism will have a minimum price, the so-called bottom; buying below this price will guarantee profit, provided that CRV can survive. But you're right, the coin price is highly manipulated. Last year, the founder of CRV was on the verge of liquidation and kept selling coins to make up for losses, which caused the price to drop significantly, yet the project still survived. I believe that if there is a bull market coming, CRV will definitely have a place.

Talk about the RWA track

The RWA sector has many tokens, and it's hard to understand each one. The leading SNX can just be looked at since it has a significant market cap and the concept is quite old; even if the market speculates on the RWA sector, funds are generally not willing to pay attention to it.

There isn't much energy for that, and the long-term observations are just five: PLUME, RSR, ONDO, RIO, MKR.

There are a few reasons:

1. They have been listed on major platforms like Binance and OKEx, which provide ample liquidity, and these large platforms have vetted them, meaning they are at least not shell projects.

2. Their market caps are very low; before this wave of growth, several were even below 100 million USD in market cap.

3. They are still continuously "doing things". The method to identify whether they are continuously active is quite simple: check their official website, Twitter, and Telegram to see if they are still updating; go to GitHub to check if they are still updating their code. There is no need to dive deep into how their code works or the market prospects of their products, because we are not large funds and do not require that level of professionalism, nor do we have the time and energy to understand such details.

Continuously active, small market cap, listed on major platforms, and still a leading project in the sector — these indicators are enough. The crypto market is one where even meme coins can be speculated to reach a market cap of hundreds of billions; who knows when the wind will blow for these small-cap projects with application scenarios, and they could soar high as well.

This does not mean they will definitely succeed; it’s just that from the perspective of risk and reward, they are indeed worth considering as part of an asset portfolio for "speculation."

Talk about how to rescue yourself after being trapped by altcoins

If you timely switch your altcoins to BTC or BNB when they are down by 50%, you can basically ensure that you will not incur losses, and it is even very likely that you can make a profit.

This is because Bitcoin has a solid market position and strong liquidity; after going through multiple bull and bear cycles, it always manages to reach new highs again. However, once most altcoins crash, they find it very difficult to return to their original prices.

If the altcoins you hold drop by more than 50% or even 70%, the risk of continuing to hold them will significantly increase, and the possibility of losing all your principal will also rise.

Many altcoin projects will completely lose value or support from the community and developers during a bear market, and they 'disappear' before the market can reverse.

If you want to recover your investment, you might consider switching your positions to some higher-ranked, stable market cap, and fundamentally sound crypto assets, such as the top 100 altcoins by market cap.

At this point, even if these coins have also dropped significantly, they are more likely to rebound during the next market recovery, thus giving you a chance to recover your investment.

The legendary whale Spoofy, with a position size of up to $6 billion, has begun to reduce his holdings again. This is the second time he has acted in three days, selling approximately 10% of his position. From past operations, it appears that he typically reduces his holdings at stage highs, rather than insisting on selling at the peak.

For example, last November, he started to gradually reduce his holdings from around $90,000 for Bitcoin, and continued until he sold everything at $105,000. This indicates that he values overall returns more than precisely timing the market top.

This reduction in holdings does not necessarily mean that the market will peak immediately, but it does release a signal: the current price may be close to the high range of this round of market activity. We may see mainstream coins oscillating at high levels next, with some altcoins taking the opportunity to catch up, but in the short term, the entire market may have already entered the latter half.

I mentioned yesterday that the AI sector is not suitable for chasing highs. Today, let's look at the decline list; the biggest drop is in the AI sector, for example, $VIRTUAL . So when everyone is trading coins, you should either ambush when a sector has just started to be speculated or wait until the first phase of speculation is over and the market starts to correct before buying in. Never chase highs when things are at their peak; otherwise, when you buy in and get stuck, you might end up having to cut your losses, and then a few days later, it takes off again. Many people lose money trading spot for this very reason. This kind of behavior is something we must avoid, and it's also a reminder I've been giving everyone consistently.

Shorting SOL with a light position
Only daring to use 1x leverage
Treating it like spot trading

The negative GDP in the first quarter for the United States is just the beginning. I believe that after May, both GDP and the unemployment rate will continue to worsen. To put it bluntly, a recession in the U.S. is inevitable. Right now, many people's biggest issue is their unwillingness to accept this and their disbelief; this sentiment is very common. Under Trump's great leadership, the recession in the U.S. has finally arrived, impressive! However, Trump will continue to blame Biden first and then blame Powell, as it has nothing to do with him 😂

I think after $ALPACA is delisted, the dog owner may go to manipulate $BSW , copying the trend of ALPACA and continuing to harvest retail investors. These two coins have many similarities; ALPACA was once a star lending protocol on BSC, later surpassed and replaced by XVS, and BSW was once the largest DEX on BSC, later surpassed and replaced by CAKE. Therefore, both ALPACA and BSW began to gradually decline, and their market values fell sharply. Now, ALPACA will be delisted in a few days, and BSW is in the observation zone; delisting is just a matter of time. Currently, BSW's market value is only over 20 million, and for a long time, this coin has been in a state of neglect, with most of the chips in the hands of the dog owner. For a market value with a bit of strength, it is too easy for the dog owner to manipulate it. I think after ALPACA is delisted, the dog owner will most likely come to manipulate BSW. If you don't believe it, let's wait and see; in any case, we will see the outcome in a few days 😂

$TRUMP Call back to below 10 can still buy
Speaking of trump, trump has risen from the bottom by several hundred times, with a minimum pullback to 7u. Its influence is at a global level. Why do I say this? Look at shib and pepe before; after going viral on the chain, they consolidated for 1-2 months before rising tenfold again. Currently, trump has been consolidating for more than 3 months, and it can't drop any further. Trump's influence is global, and a clear example is that several of my relatives, whom I had suggested to invest in btc, eth, and sol a few years ago, scoffed at it. However, on the day trump launched, many relatives asked me via WeChat how to buy it. Since 2021, following dogecoin and shib, trump has attracted many newcomers into the market. Everyone in the circle knows that massive funds + ceiling-level narratives + new entrants = bull market. A second-stage increase of 5-10 times is not a problem.

Why I say that from a macro perspective, the bull market is still ongoing, and Bitcoin and altcoins still have a wave of main upward momentum

Let’s start with the conclusion: now (April) to mid-year (June) is the best time to dollar-cost average into quality coins, and there is a high probability of a strong rise around mid-year. Currently, the cost-effectiveness of bottom-fishing is extremely high.

Next, I will demonstrate the correctness of this conclusion from the perspectives of the global M2 and BTCcoin relationship; altcoin scoring index; Bitcoin market share; and USDT dominance, etc.

Global M2 refers to the total money supply of various countries around the world, reflecting the total scale of cash in circulation, demand deposits, time deposits, and other highly liquid financial assets. This indicator is often used to measure the degree of looseness in the global monetary environment and the liquidity level of the economy.

Historically, when global M2 grows, Bitcoin prices tend to follow that growth.

As shown in the figure below, in 2017, a similar adjustment occurred due to the same response to Trump's policies (the dollar strengthened, interest rates rose, followed by a reversal). After the adjustment, with the increase of global M2, Bitcoin continued to rise.
Figure 1

Returning to the current Bitcoin trend, from September to December 2024, initially due to the presidential election and positive expectations for Bitcoin as a national reserve, Bitcoin rose from 60K to nearly 110K.
Figure 2

After December, as expectations were realized, the dollar strengthened and interest rates rose, cryptocurrencies would still be affected by liquidity tightening, and Bitcoin subsequently fell sharply. However, this trend has almost ended, financial conditions are rapidly easing, M2 is returning to new highs, and it is expected that Bitcoin will have another main upward wave or a strong rise in a few months (I personally expect it will adjust to July).

Let's talk about the K-line patterns of altcoins, and everyone can compare them with the K-line trends of the altcoins they hold.

The spot market in the first half of the year has been a mess, especially for altcoins. The nature of these kinds of assets is extreme volatility; it's not that these assets are bad, but the cycles dictate the situation. Buying below the lifeline can lead to significant losses, while buying above the lifeline can turn a nobody into a wealthy person. That is the difference.

I've been quite busy lately, watching the market every day to find targets that break above the lifeline on the daily chart. For these kinds of assets, doubling is the minimum goal; those below the lifeline won't even double when the bull market ends.

Only altcoins with this structure have a future...

A friend of mine shorted Alpaca and got wiped out
He wants to know if anyone lost more than he did?