Crypto飞哥

A self-introduction for my followers

Hello everyone, I am Fei Ge. I entered the crypto space in 2017, and I can be considered an old hand. Along the way, I have stepped into countless pitfalls, but I have also summarized some of my own methodologies. From blindly following trends at the beginning, I have gradually shifted my focus to studying cycles, macro trends, and capital logic, and I have slowly found my own rhythm.

As I journeyed, I found that the crypto world is not just about ups and downs; it is more like a cyclical game: some people FOMO during the highs, while others quietly position themselves during the lows.

Currently, I am a blogger on Binance Square, sharing some of my personal thoughts and observations. I am not a great expert, just an old hand who has experienced several bull and bear markets. I hope to share the pitfalls I have encountered and the lessons I have learned, so that newcomers can avoid unnecessary detours, and I can also gain new insights through exchange.

If you also believe in cycles, logic, and long-term accumulation, then perhaps we can become companions here.

Regarding the viewpoints in my posts, please note the following points:

1: The crypto market is constantly changing, and so will my viewpoints follow the market. This industry changes too quickly; only by continuously keeping up with the industry's progress can one continue to grow. Sticking rigidly to established norms will only lead to being eliminated by the times, so I hope everyone can be more open-minded.

2: The viewpoints I post on the Square are divided into short-term and long-term. For example, even if I am bullish in the long term, there will be pullbacks in between; similarly, even if I am bearish in the long term, there will also be rebounds in between. Please do not let short-term viewpoints affect long-term perspectives. An upward market does not mean it will rise continuously without looking back; more often, it is a trend of ups and downs. Similarly, a downward market does not mean it will crash without any rebounds; more often, it is a trend of falls and rises overall. I hope everyone can understand the differences between short-term and long-term viewpoints.

3: In this market, apart from BTC, which can be followed blindly, other coins have market cycles, especially altcoins. Before buying a coin, you should at least investigate it; some things need to be understood a bit, and you cannot just buy whatever others say. Especially for those with limited funds, you need to consider the actual situation and be more cautious.

Thank you to every friend who follows and supports me; you are the motivation for my continued sharing. May we all reap our own rewards in the cycles. 🌱

$ONDO The fundamentals on the chain (TVL, institutional collaboration, regulatory approval) are quietly growing, but the price discovery mechanism will only truly start when ONDO's practical layer—governance, fee distribution, and settlement channels—begins to guide real demand through the token itself. This is the trigger for revaluation.

I believe the ONDO project team will continue to empower the ONDO token, similar to the recent $UNI , and in the future, the ONDO project is also likely to regularly buy back and destroy ONDO tokens on the secondary market using the income from the ONDO protocol.

Is anyone still watching Slow Bull? It should be gone by now.

I took a look at the panic index, and currently the panic index is close to single digits. This is the third panic phase since this round of bull market. The previous two times when the panic index was close to single digits were both at phase bottoms. Are you panicking in this market? To be honest, I am not panicking at all because I have become numb. 😂😂😂

If next year the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market both go bearish
Bitcoin drops more than 50%
Nasdaq drops more than 30%
At that time, do not feel pessimistic, but rather feel excited
What you need to do is to go all in, completely all in
Because that is the best opportunity for you and me to change our lives
When AI starts to be officially put into production in the future
BTC rises to a point where ordinary people can no longer afford it
You won't even have the chance to turn your life around by working
Ordinary people have completely no chance of crossing classes.

From the clearing heatmap of the last week $BTC , the liquidity for longs is concentrated in the 98000 to 99000 range. Before the final surge, it may test this range again. Today's pullback shouldn't cause panic; as long as the weekly line can hold the 98000 bull-bear dividing line, it shouldn't be a big issue.

I looked at the trends of OKB and BNB
At least BNB has funding support, but OKB is completely in free fall. Has anyone been trapped by OKB? How much have you all been trapped in?

$BTC The future will become an index in the decentralized track of the US stock market.

In the past few years, the market capitalization of Bitcoin breaking through a trillion and even approaching two trillion dollars is no coincidence. To some extent, it has already become the index of the entire decentralized track. Just like QQQ represents US tech stocks and the Dow Jones represents US industrial stocks, Bitcoin is the barometer of the decentralized field.

If the market were to create a decentralized index, Bitcoin's weight would have to be between 60% and 80%, Ethereum at least 15%, and all other tokens combined would only account for 15%. This means that in a track, Bitcoin takes up two-thirds. In comparison, even the seven sisters of the US stock market only account for one-third of the entire US stock market. In other words, the concentration in the decentralized world is much higher than in traditional markets.

Currently, the entire crypto market is basically an oligopoly, with one oligarch being Bitcoin and two oligarchs being Bitcoin plus Ethereum. Other coins lag several orders of magnitude behind in market value and influence.

Why would anyone still want to bet on this track? Because it indeed has incremental growth. The essence of investment is to buy growth; in places without increment, one can only gamble on the existing stock, and that kind of market is cheap, but it also lacks much imaginative space. As Duan Yongping said, cheap things can become cheaper, which is the result of having no increment. What is truly worth investing in is those things that are certain to continue growing.

The future of decentralization is clearly still in its early stages. Its certainty is not as strong as that of AI—AI is almost a consensus among all humanity, but decentralization is still in the stage of being questioned and discussed. However, in my view, it will certainly continue to develop because this is the inevitable evolutionary direction of the internet.

The biggest problem with traditional internet is centralization—server outages, platform bans, data monopolization. The logic of decentralization is: even if the network cable is unplugged, as long as the network is restored, the ledger will automatically synchronize, and no one can tamper with it. This kind of trust is the most fundamental and powerful infrastructure, greatly reducing trust costs and increasing system efficiency.

So, when you understand this, you will see why the decentralized track is still an incremental market and why Bitcoin can become an index-level existence on this track.

Now many people see that some shanzhai coins on the rising list are not following the decline
and think that these coins have capital support and will soar when the market stabilizes later. However, the reality is that after a few days when the market stabilizes, these coins will make up for the decline. This trick has been played by the dog traders many times, don't be fooled again.

$FIL The recent surge in the market a couple of days ago is likely due to institutional investors re-entering. Currently, it depends on where the pullback stabilizes. FIL has dropped 99% from its peak. I have previously criticized FIL as a worthless coin, but from the perspective of the project's fundamentals, FIL is indeed the leader in the storage sector. Previously, its market cap was too high, and the cost-performance ratio was not good. Now, it can be said that it has dropped to a reasonable cost-performance ratio. It all depends on when the overall market stabilizes; at that time, I will consider re-entering $FIL .

According to the current news, Wall Street institutions are much more interested in the $XRP ETF than the $SOL ETF.

Maintain a clear awareness of human nature

I still remember last year's cryptocurrency circle

Everyone was hoping Trump would be elected president

To bring favorable policies to the cryptocurrency sector, making the purchase of $BTC a national strategy

The result was that two days before Trump took office, he first issued himself a $TRUMP coin

Then his wife Melania issued a coin

Next, they launched their own $WLFI project

On October 11, it was said that his son Barron obtained insider information from Trump and made a large short sale when the market crashed, gaining huge profits

The cryptocurrency circle did not wait for Trump's favorable news

What came was the Trump family treating the cryptocurrency circle as an ATM and crazily sucking blood

In fact, our retail investors' thoughts from the very beginning were naive fantasies, contrary to the principles of human nature

Human nature is selfish and self-serving, rarely altruistic

Every choice and action made by individuals is based on expanding their own interests

The cryptocurrency circle itself is an extremely selfish harvesting ground, yet expects others to show great kindness to save them

What are retail investors in the cryptocurrency circle thinking?

They are hoping for Trump to attract more chives (investors) to take over for them, not expecting Trump to directly harvest this group of chives

So we are essentially a group of selfish individuals, yet we expect another powerful figure to act altruistically and bring benefits to us

Now thinking about it, it is indeed very childish and naive

Now, besides believing in Bitcoin and Satoshi Nakamoto, I dare not trust anyone or anything

Because I know human nature is selfish; everyone is for their own interests, and no one will show great kindness, especially in this dark forest of the cryptocurrency circle

Answer some of the most concerned questions from retail investors in the cryptocurrency market

1. How to understand bull and bear markets? Why do many people still lose money in a bull market?

Bull and bear markets are actually the natural rhythm of the market, like waves. A major upward wave is a bull market, and the pullbacks and fluctuations are a bear market. Generally, the first and third waves of an upward movement are very brief, with the second wave pullback lasting the longest, which is that kind of prolonged decline plus sideways phase. Many people fall before the dawn of a bull market because they can't endure that endless bear period.
The main reason for losing money in a bull market is actually buying the wrong position. The essence of trading is to buy low and sell high, but most people do the opposite: they dare to buy only after the price rises and panic sell when it drops.

2. Are altcoins scams? Why do market makers sometimes lose money too?

Most altcoins have no actual value and exist solely for speculation. 99% will eventually go to zero, just changing narratives to deceive the next round.
In this round, altcoins have performed poorly, not only retail investors are losing, but many market makers have also been tricked by exchanges and large investors. Some are caught off-guard after buying the dips and end up panic selling. The cryptocurrency market is a layer of predation, with big fish eating small fish, and small fish eating shrimp; those without connections or strength will be harvested.
When the market is good, large investors easily profit by raising prices, but when the market is poor, no one takes over, and they dump their holdings and run. Even institutions follow the 80/20 rule—those with thicker wallets tend to survive more easily.

3. Why does Bitcoin rise, but altcoins do not follow?

Bitcoin can rise because all the funds and attention are focused on it. Now it is basically linked to the US stock market, with large funds only buying Bitcoin. In the last bull market, liquidity was strong, so altcoins could also rise. But this time is different; with limited funds and new coins peaking quickly, project teams can make money just through market cap management.
ETH and several major star projects have flopped this time, the project teams made money, but the secondary market is lifeless. Retail investors' hot money has gone to meme coins and small-cap coins, while old coins are not only stagnant but have even fallen, with many priced lower than during the bear market. This time, it’s a bull market for mainstream coins, and most altcoins need to be viewed separately.

4. Will there be an explosion for altcoins?
Yes, but it hasn't started yet. Currently, many candlestick charts are fake, and the future market is likely to appear in Q4 2025 to the first half of 2026. As long as there are coins operated by large investors, there will be a wave of market activity. For example, mainstream coins through ETFs, while coins without large investor operations may remain silent this round.

Retail investors have finally become smarter, and altcoins are completely abandoned
$BANK launched on Binance with a market value of tens of millions but has plummeted all the way
Because everyone knows that altcoins are worth 0

Latest Developments in Domestic Regulation: Focus on the Disposal of Involved Virtual Currencies
Regulation has been upgraded again, but ordinary people trading cryptocurrencies should still be fine. The concern is whether in the future the C2C trading channels of exchanges will be blocked, which would make it difficult for everyone to buy and sell U.

France fully lifts the travel ban on Telegram CEO
It seems that the Telegram CEO must have paid a considerable amount of security deposit. Since the incident with the Telegram CEO in 2024, the coin $TON has struggled to rise due to this issue, having dropped for over a year. Before this incident, the trend of TON was very strong. Additionally, Coinbase is also planning to list TON recently. These two factors combined are considered positive news. The regulatory uncertainty hanging over TON should no longer be a negative factor. Let's see if TON can rebound.

This market still suggests that everyone should try to watch the market as little as possible
No matter how hard you work during this garbage time, it's still a loss
Go out, have a meal, and relax well
Come back and continue when the market is good

BTC short-term maximum short position whale Owen Gunden has deposited 2401 BTC to Kraken
Another whale from the Satoshi era who held for 15 years has cashed out and left, and currently, the balance of this address has been cleared.