Focus more on the external macro environment in the upcoming market

On Thursday, Powell will speak at Jackson Hole. The market had originally hoped for an interest rate cut in September, but the reality is that inflationary pressures are still present, and expectations for rate cuts have been dampened, leading to a pullback in both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market. Gold remains stable, while oil prices have slightly declined due to news about U.S.-Russia-Ukraine negotiations. If there is real progress in the talks, the risk premium will decrease, which theoretically is positive; however, if the talks fall through, market sentiment could turn sharply negative.

ETH almost reached a new high recently but has been pushed back below 4200. Additionally, with many tokens being unlocked this week, the short-term liquidity situation is relatively tight. However, institutional attitudes remain unchanged, with BMNR aggressively increasing its holdings in ETH, indicating that institutional capital is still optimistic.

My own understanding is: the key this week will still depend on Powell's tone. If he leans dovish, BTC could return to 120k, and ETH might surpass 4500; if he continues to emphasize fighting inflation, the market will likely remain volatile. For altcoins, it's best to pick projects with real logic and genuine benefits, rather than chasing randomly. Overall, short-term fluctuations will be significant, but the long-term trend remains unchanged, making it more suitable to look for low-point opportunities during the adjustment.