Although the prices have fluctuated somewhat, the overall sentiment among investors is still quite good. Tomorrow is the day for the CPI announcement. Looking at the reactions of the U.S. stock market and $BTC, they are quite similar, both experiencing slight fluctuations, which is normal. The recent CPI and retail data have reflected some risk-averse sentiment, which is completely understandable given that market expectations for the data are not optimistic.

Data shows that last month's broad CPI was 2.7%, while the market expectation was 2.8%, and the Cleveland Fed's forecast was 2.72%. Although there is a slight discrepancy, it also suggests that if there are no issues, the broad CPI is likely to be within expectations or slightly below it, roughly between 2.7 and 2.8.

I have always believed that current investors have begun to desensitize to tariffs, as the main contention now is no longer solely dictated by the Federal Reserve but rather the battle between the radical faction representing Trump and the conservative faction of the Fed. The Trump faction will likely dominate with interest rate cuts as long as the data is not exaggerated, while the conservatives might stick to interest rates until they see a clear decline in inflation data to demonstrate their integrity.

Therefore, if the data is good, it will certainly be a win-win situation, allowing everyone to save face. If the data is bad, it does not necessarily mean it will be very pessimistic, after all, the market expects a high probability of interest rate cuts in September. I used to say that since the rate hikes in 2022, the market has never won against the Federal Reserve, but this time, I truly do not know.

Returning to Bitcoin's data, the turnover rate started to rise on Monday, which was expected, as BTC's price increased significantly over the weekend, prompting many short-term investors to trade. The data clearly shows that short-term investors are currently the main force behind the trading, while earlier investors are still taking a wait-and-see approach, not panicking or exiting despite BTC's price returning to $120,000.

Although there has been a lot of turnover, the change in chips at the two support levels is still quite minimal, and there has not been a significant exit, indicating that investors at these two positions are gradually turning into long-term investors. The seventh support zone, as I mentioned yesterday, is gradually taking shape. Whether it can form is another matter, and it requires further observation.