📊 One, Mainstream Currency Market Analysis
1. Bitcoin (BTC)
◦ Current Trend: Bitcoin is in a recent downward trend, having continued sideways for nearly 20 days after the mid-July peak, last Friday it broke the support level of $116,000, starting a correction. On August 8, it reached a low of $112,600, the 4-hour chart shows repeated failures to break above $115,000 followed by a significant drop, with bears in control.
◦ Key Levels:
▪ Resistance level: $114,000-$115,000 (short-term), $117,600-$118,900 (mid-term).
▪ Support level: $112,500-$111,500 (short-term), $108,000-$112,000 is a strong on-chain support range.
◦ Short-term Expectations: If it breaks below $112,000, may test the $110,000 mark; if it stabilizes above $114,000, there may be a technical rebound opportunity.
2. Ethereum (ETH)
◦ Current Trend: After retreating from strong pressure at $3700, it broke critical support down to $3400 last Friday, with recent rebounds failing to hold above $3700, daily structure weakens. The 4-hour chart is in a slow decline channel, with $3560 as critical support.
◦ Key Levels:
▪ Resistance level: $3600-$3640 (short-term), $4073-$4151 (mid-term).
▪ Support level: $3500-$3470 (short-term), if it breaks, may test $3450.
◦ ETH/BTC exchange rate: Currently around 0.058, breaking above 0.059 indicates ETH strengthening (driven by expectations of spot ETFs).
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📰 Two, Today's Important News Updates
1. Positive US Policy
◦ Trump signs executive order: Allows 401(k) retirement plans to invest in cryptocurrencies, opening a channel for approximately $12.5 trillion in retirement funds; simultaneously halting banks from cutting off crypto services citing 'reputational risk' (ending the 'Chokepoint 2.0' initiative).
◦ Market Impact: Bitwise Research estimates that if pensions allocate 1% to crypto assets, it will bring $80 billion in incremental funding.
2. Regulatory and Legal Developments
◦ Ripple settles with SEC: Both parties abandon appeals, 2023 ruling takes effect (trading of XRP in secondary market does not constitute securities), XRP rises by 7%.
◦ Hong Kong launches RWA registration platform: Promoting compliance in the tokenization of real-world assets.
3. Institutional Dynamics
◦ Ethereum treasury companies: Standard Chartered Bank points out that such companies hold 1.6% of circulating ETH, growing at a rate comparable to spot ETFs, and can enhance returns through staking/DeFi.
◦ Increase in holdings by listed companies: Nasdaq company Fundamental Global plans to raise $5 billion, focusing on allocating ETH.
4. On-chain Data and Market Signals
◦ Bitcoin hash rate hits a new high: The total network hash rate reaches 1.08 ZH/s, reflecting miner confidence, but may intensify selling pressure from miners in the short term.
◦ OTC reserves exhausted: Off-exchange reserves have dropped to a historical low of 155,000 BTC, which may trigger supply shocks on exchanges.
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⚠️ Three, Operational Strategies and Risk Warnings
• Mainstream Coin Operations:
◦ BTC: Short on highs (pressure zone $114K-$115K), lightly short if it breaks below $112K; accumulate buy orders in batches at support levels.
◦ ETH: Focus on the support at $3560, observe if it breaks; if ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks above 0.059, consider switching to ETH.
• Altcoins and Hot Sectors:
◦ RWA/Layer2: Top projects (such as ONDO) that drop more than 8% can be accumulated in batches, betting on rotational rebounds.
◦ New Layer2: Enter lightly when the mainnet upgrade or collaboration announcement leads to a 10%-15% pullback (e.g., Arbitrum ecosystem).
• Risk Warning:
◦ Macroeconomic risk aversion sentiment (Trump's tariff policy, Middle East conflict) may exacerbate volatility.
◦ Low liquidity over the weekend, beware of spike market; avoid high-leverage operations.
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💎 Four, Summary
• Market Tone: Structural adjustments continue, macroeconomic risk aversion and weak liquidity suppress short-term performance, not yet entering a main upward wave.
• Core Strategy: Focus on defense, mainstream coins rely on support/resistance range for swing trading, altcoins lightly positioned for quick entry and exit.
• Long-term Positive: Policy openness (pension entering the market), on-chain fundamentals (new high in hash rate, OTC exhaustion) support long-term bullish logic.
It is recommended to closely monitor the weekend's US non-farm payroll revision, Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics, and ETH spot ETF progress, as these may become catalysts for next week's market.
