When most people panic during the K-line plunge, true market hunters are quietly sharpening their knives. I am Old Lin, the crypto market observer who has accompanied 3000+ retail investors through three rounds of bull and bear markets. At this moment, two o'clock in the morning, Ethereum is quoted at 2545 USD. This pullback is not the end but an invitation for those who are prepared to enter the market.
The crypto market in 2025 will still cure all kinds of 'assumptions', but remember: the back of panic selling is always a window of opportunity. Today's in-depth analysis will help you understand the capital dynamics behind the pullback, and a precise operational range is provided at the end, which beginners can easily follow.
First, look at the global signals given by the daily K-line: Over the past three days, Ethereum has been consolidating in the 2530-2600 USD range. This kind of 'grinding market' is often a prelude to a trend reversal. The short-term lifeline EMA15 is currently stuck at 2480 USD, which is the last defense line for the bulls—if it breaks below this level, the depth of the pullback may exceed expectations; if it holds, a 'double bottom support' pattern may form.
The MACD indicator gives a clearer warning: the energy bars continue to shrink, and after the DIF and DEA form a death cross, they accelerate downward, indicating that the bears are accumulating strength. The contraction of the Bollinger Bands further confirms this, with the upper band pressure dropping sharply from 2970 USD to 2850 USD, while the lower band support has risen to 2120 USD. In this 'upward and downward squeeze' pattern, the direction of the breakout is particularly critical.
Switching to the four-hour chart to look at short-term games: After encountering resistance at 2600 USD, Ethereum has directly fallen below the two trend defense lines of EMA15 and EMA30, currently struggling around 2530 USD. The MACD indicator shows a 'strong and weak' characteristic; although bearish energy has not been fully released, the bulls have shown signs of fatigue. It is especially important to note that the lower Bollinger Band has fallen below 2500 USD, indicating a clear short-term bearish trend. Extreme caution is required for bottom fishing until a stabilization signal appears.
Combining multi-timeframe signals, here comes practical advice for retail investors (remember: stop loss is the lifeline, it should never be neglected):
Long position layout point: Focus on the 2430-2400 USD range, which is both a previous high transaction area and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level. The defense level is set at 2370 USD, with a stop loss of 30 points. The first target is the 2500 USD whole number mark, and if it breaks, look to continue up to the 2600-2630 USD resistance area.
Short position entry point: A rebound to the 2580-2600 USD range can be lightly shorted; this range is both the EMA30 resistance level and the resistance from the previous breakdown. Place the defense level at 2630 USD, with a stop loss of 30 points, and initially target the 2500 USD support. If it breaks, look down to the 2400-2350 USD range.
It must be emphasized that there is no '100% accurate' analysis in the crypto market. What we can do is improve our win rate through technical indicators and control risks with stop losses. Many retail investors lose not because they cannot understand the market, but because they succumb to 'wishful thinking'—always thinking this time will be an exception, and once a mistake occurs, they lose all profits.
When a trend emerges, be bold to follow; when there is no trend, learn to wait. Ethereum is currently in a 'chaotic period before a clear trend', and instead of frequently trading in the fluctuations and exhausting your principal, it is better to patiently wait for a clear breakout signal before taking action.
If you have a different view on the current market or want to know about layout opportunities for other cryptocurrencies, feel free to leave a comment. Follow me, and every Wednesday at 8 PM, I will live stream to analyze the real-time market, helping you avoid the traps set by the main force. The crypto market in 2025 presents both opportunities and risks; Old Lin will accompany you to steadily move forward, protecting profits amid volatility, and together we will head towards financial freedom.
Final reminder: Always control your position size in all operations, with no single cryptocurrency position exceeding 30% of your principal. Never use essential living funds for investment. The market always has opportunities; preserving your principal is key to turning things around. Wishing you a smooth layout tonight, see you in the comments!