📊 Market sentiment and quick overview
- Total market capitalization: $3.74T (**-6.6%**), 24-hour liquidations exceed $950 million (90% long positions)
- Fear and Greed Index: 65 (→ Neutral zone, down 7 points in a day), risk-averse sentiment dominates
- $BTC : $112,968 (-2.4%), breaking key support at $113K, RSI drops to **35.4** (oversold signal)
- $ETH : $3,489 (-5.56%), hitting a new low for the month, the hourly chart shows a “death cross”
- Sector movements:
- 📉 Broad decline: SOL(-4.5%), XRP(-5%), DOGE(-6.13%)
- 📈 Leading the rise against the trend: SocialFi sector +1.65%, MemeCore skyrockets 17.75%
🔥 Key hot events
1. Non-farm payroll data “violently revised down” triggers market panic
- U.S. non-farm employment data for May and June revised down by 258,000 (the largest drop since the pandemic), only 73,000 new jobs added in July (expected 104,000)
- The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September surged from 40% to over 80%, the dollar index plummeted 1.37% in a single day
2. ETF funds fleeing
- Bitcoin spot ETF sees a net outflow of $810 million in a single day (a six-month high), Ethereum ETF ends 20 days of inflows turning into a $150 million outflow
- Main reasons for institutional withdrawals: Uncertainty in tariff policies + concerns about economic recession
3. Trump issues an “ultimatum” to Russia
- Requires Putin to cease military operations in Ukraine by August 8, or impose “punitive tariffs” on Russian oil importers (India has piloted at 25%)
- Congress is in recess, leaving the sanctions bill on hold, and the president gains unilateral action power
👑 KOL and institutional movements
1. Arthur Hayes sells $13 million in assets to hedge
- Liquidated 2,373 ETH + 7.76M ENA + 38.86B PEPE in 6 hours, warning “BTC may test $100K”
2. Eric Trump calls for “Buy The Dip”
- Publicly calls for bottom fishing, describing the pullback as a “long-term layout opportunity”
3. Coinbase increases holdings against the trend
- Purchased 2,509 BTC in Q2, advancing the “all-purpose exchange” strategy
⚖️ Policy and regulatory updates
1. New stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong take effect today
- Selling stablecoins to retail investors without a license is illegal; OTC is not yet restricted (Asian liquidity under pressure)
2. U.S. sanctions power handed over to the president
- Congress's recess completely hands over the decision-making power for sanctions against Russia to Trump
3. SEC approves physically settled ETP
- Reducing institutional trading friction, but fails to relieve market selling pressure
💎 Key trend insights
- Extreme divergence in altcoins:
- Meme coins sold off (DOGE falls below $0.20)
- SocialFi (MEET48) + New public chain (CFX) shows resilience
- Pledge liquidity improves: ETH validators' exit queue shrinks to 3.2 days (peak 8 days), selling pressure weakens
- Institutional ETH support effect: BlackRock net purchased $2.8 billion in 7 days, holdings exceed 3 million coins
> Today's proverb:
> “When the non-farm payroll data tears apart market consensus, when the power of sanctions is handed over to one person —
> The crypto world seeks a new balance between policy iron curtain and data ruins.”
