Manipulated by capital, the probability of interest rate cuts in September is 82.3%, so the market rebounded this morning. BTC's third crash broke the consolidation, retesting the 50-day moving average at 112k. In the past week, BTC opened at 118.6k, reached a high of 119.8k, a low of 111.9k, and closed at 113.9k, with a weekly volatility of 6.8%.
Today's hot opportunity:
1. When Bitcoin is consolidating, the altcoin sector rises, but the altcoin rally is interrupted after Bitcoin's decline.
2. X account a: Grok humanoid companion Ani's information update, the same-name meme coin ANI rose over 60% in 6 hours, FDV exceeded 40 million USD.
3. Musk mentioned VINE: the doge market took the opportunity to offload, with the price plummeting from 0.13 to around 0.06.
4. Large unlocks: $ENA unlocks 172 million coins on August 5 (2.70% of circulating supply, about 95.8 million USD). $IMX unlocks 24.52 million coins on August 8 (1.30% of circulating supply, about 12.2 million USD). $MOVE unlocks 50 million coins on August 9 (1.89% of circulating supply, about 6.5 million USD).
5. Market dynamics: The major market adjusted over the weekend, while $troll rose against the trend; CEX generally declined, DEFI concept ENA rebounded about 20%, worth paying attention to.
BTC
Bitcoin's monthly line hasn't dropped to the target yet, but the weekly line is nearly there. Last week, it broke below EMA7, and this week it opened above EMA7 again. So whether the monthly gap can be filled depends on this week's performance. On the daily line, a large bullish candle over the weekend ended the previous six consecutive bearish days, with the price standing above the lower track. The bearish momentum of MACD is decreasing, KDJ and RSI have started to move upwards after turning at low levels.
Whether the decline over the past six days has reached its target or is just a rebound to lure in buyers will be known soon.
For shorting, today is the last opportunity; if the market continues to rise, then it has reached its target, and further shorts should focus on the recent frequently pressured high point of 120,000.
Short-term 4-hour level, the price has also stood above the middle track, today the strategy is mainly to short high. Pay attention to resistance at 115000 to 116000, look to place short positions nearby, targeting 114000, 113000, and 112000.
ETH
Ethereum's rebound is stronger than Bitcoin's, rising from 3353 to about 3560 now, with a divergence appearing on the 5-minute level, confirming the buying and selling points: after the first and second buys, it is currently at the third buy, with a stop-loss point at 3510. The breakout strength on the right side is still good, directly breaking through the central point on the left, and further observation is needed.
Today is also focused on shorting high. Resistance is seen at 3590, 3680, and 3730, where short positions can be entered, targeting 3500, 3400, and 3300.
In July, ETH surged 60%, can it continue in August?
First, look at the buying and selling situation, CEX outflow of 1.1 million ETH, monthly loss rate of 5%. Similar to June's BTC, when CEX reserves decreased, the price did not rise significantly, but in July it hit a new high. The reasoning is that reduced CEX withdrawals create liquidity to build strength for a rise.
Regarding ETH, in July, there was a large accumulation of over a million by whales, and during the pullback, CEX trading volume did not increase, and reserves continued to decline, indicating that a large number of chips are being locked up, and CEX does not reflect the true supply and demand price of ETH.
The market has ups and downs, with bulls and bears alternating; one must not fixate on either side but be flexible like a 'slippery head'.
There are no perpetual winners in the market, only those who can stay in the market for a long time. Reduce leverage, control positions, stabilize when there are small losses, hold profitable positions and reduce them in batches. By persisting like this day by day, one can slowly accumulate profits.
TA recommended entering at 0.054 yesterday afternoon, and it has now risen to 0.064, gaining 19 points.
B安 ALPHA scoring, many have heard of it but haven't done it, always feel it's difficult, can't operate or calculate scores.
The solution is very simple:
Examples are here: 1. This friend belongs to the second type, with a foundation, has quickly scored close to 150 points, waiting for rewards; 2. This friend has zero foundation and is now also hands-on.
In terms of earnings, see chart 3, daily receipts valued at 50-70, (5 accounts) last month earned over 10,000, it would be even better if encountering big profits.
On-chain
On-chain doge play: closely follow Musk's dynamics!
Yesterday, Old Ma strongly promoted the AI trifecta: Ani, rudi, BADRUDI, all up over 50%, Valentine doubled, and the new deployment of FARTLESS slightly boosted on-chain activity. However, the market lacks a new narrative, and liquidity has not recovered.
It is recommended to operate cautiously, only focus on Musk's tweets, and concentrate on leading concepts like PYTHIA and IMAGINE. Buy on dips and sell immediately after shouting (today IMAGINE has already retraced to the bottom).
