First, look at the rebound strength of the Asian market. On August 1, tariffs will be increased. Wall Street sold all night, and the crypto market was plagued by scams, with altcoins continuously declining without any signs of rebound. Then there was a spike; even the whales were liquidated. Many people will probably cry when they wake up today.
On that night, a total of 158,648 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $633 million, $57 million for long positions and $62.66 million for short positions.
Now is the time to test your positions. If the drop is significant, those holding short positions will surely be happy; if you don't have short positions and instead bought more, or if you wake up fully invested, the market will only teach you a lesson. If you can't manage your positions, you'll definitely panic at this time. What should you do in such situations?
First, look at the overall profit and loss: if there is an overall profit or a small loss, immediately clear out large positions, keeping only one target (if the capital is large, you can keep two). Having too many will not allow you to cope with large fluctuations.
Next, consider the space for averaging down: if the remaining targets can be averaged down 1-3 times without affecting the overall situation, wait for a right-side rebound opportunity to exit; if there is no rebound opportunity, average down at the points below. Earn what should be earned, and cut losses where needed.
BTC
The correction that needs to come will always come. Bitcoin has now fallen below the low of July 25, and the Bollinger Bands have changed from narrow to wide. The four-hour chart shows a wedge pattern adjustment, so those trading short-term can pay attention. Watch support levels at 112,000, 109,500, and 107,500; resistance levels at 119,200 and 116,411.
BTC continued to decline during the day; any rebound is an opportunity to escape. When close to the cost, break-even, or if the rebound is enough to cover fees, it's time to run. Don't cling to positions from the early hours! If it falls below 116,411 and cannot recover, it may retest the 4,000-point level. The large non-farm payroll data tonight may trigger volatility, so clear positions during the day and look for opportunities at night. Avoid turning short-term trades into medium to long-term ones!
ETH
The mid to long-term trend of Ethereum remains healthy and is expected to lead a rebound, focusing on the 3600 level. If the integer level is not broken, you can buy on dips in the 3636-3606 range for short-term operations. Watch support levels at 3425 and 3339; resistance levels at 3892. The 3715-3725 range is currently in fierce contention. Those who didn't exit at this point last night should seize the opportunity to run or take action!
In terms of operation, this morning emphasizes again how important position control is: if positions are unreasonable, you might wake up to huge losses; if you only entered the first position or averaged down once, even if the drop looks severe, seeing light positions allows you to respond calmly.
Altcoins
A2Z fell 20% yesterday; everyone should be comfortable now.
Recently, the market changes rapidly, so you must choose coins that are resilient or have great potential!
If you have the bullets for spot trading, you can gradually buy the dip. The main recommendations are some large market-cap tokens: BTC, ETH, XRP, DOGE, SUI, SOL, PEPE, PENGU, etc.
A fan asked: Can Bitcoin and Ethereum reach new highs again? Will altcoins usher in a bull market?
This needs to be viewed dialectically; there are many possibilities. We do not preset the best or worst scenarios, but rather assess future risks and opportunities based on cycles and news.
First, whether altcoins will have a bull market mainly depends on the trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum. For example, if Bitcoin fluctuates slightly upward, breaks new highs, and then rises slowly, or if a mountain ETF is approved, leading to accelerated interest rate cuts, some altcoins may start to rally. However, these prerequisites are actually quite difficult to achieve, especially during this period after tariffs, with U.S. stocks at high levels and delayed interest rate cuts. Bitcoin's volatility will be greater, making slight upward fluctuations less likely.
Secondly, even if the above situation occurs, altcoins will be difficult to experience a widespread rise; they will only rise in rotation. Most altcoins already touched a peak last December and reached a secondary peak between May and July this year.
Mainstream coins are influenced by ETF and interest rate cut expectations, still having bull market opportunities (following Bitcoin), but the relationship between altcoins and ETFs or interest rate cuts has diminished.
