#美国加征关税

Market Rhythm and Capital Dynamics:

- Recent market performance has shown a fluctuation pattern of "up during the day and down at night," especially during the U.S. stock market opening hours, where signs of a crash are easily observed.

- Institutional capital inflow is relatively limited, with Bitcoin seeing a daily net inflow of several tens of millions, while Ethereum appears relatively calm with only $5.8 million in inflow, indicating a decline in interest from U.S. institutions in the crypto market.

- Altcoins overall are underperforming, with many returning to historical lows, and capital is extremely polarized, with only a few altcoins performing relatively well due to partnerships with established entities or support from projects like ETFs.

Macro and Policy Environment:

- This week's macro events have had a significant impact, especially the FOMC meeting's unexpectedly hawkish stance, leading to market volatility.

- FOMC voting indicates a reduced probability of interest rate cuts, dropping from an expected 65% to 43%, directly hitting the anticipated rate cut bull market and causing short-term adjustments in major assets like Bitcoin.

- The Federal Reserve emphasizes its independence, suggesting uncertainty in the short-term policy path, while tariff negotiations are gradually advancing, but risks related to geopolitical tensions and trade remain.

- Q2 GDP, price index, and employment data performed better than expected, providing a brief boost to the market; however, overall bearish pressures still exist.