Preface: The harsh truth of the crypto world
This is not a wealth creation myth, but a survival game lasting nine years. In 2015, I entered the crypto world with 1 million, and three years later, I was left with only 200,000 — my family was on the verge of collapse, and my life hit rock bottom. Today, that 200,000 has transformed into 40 million. There are no miracles in my story, only a MACD trading strategy earned through blood and tears.
One, dark years: the lessons bought with 800,000 tuition
2015-2018: The cost of blind trading
- Chasing highs and cutting lows: madly adding positions when BTC surged from $1,000 to $20,000, but holding on during the 2018 crash, losing over 60%
- Contract gambling: leverage up to 50 times, three liquidations to zero
- Emotional loss of control: intense conflicts with family due to losses, marriage nearly collapsed
Turning point: the final redemption of 200,000
At the end of 2018, I set three military rules for myself:
1. Never go all in, single coin position ≤ 15%
2. Only trade spot, stay away from contract leverage
3. All trades must be based on MACD signals
Two, the five core logics of MACD trading strategy
1. Trend judge: dual lines determine the universe
- Golden cross and death cross are just appearances, the key is the distance between DIF and DEA:
- Continuous expansion of distance = trend acceleration (like BTC breaking $10,000 after 2020)
- Distance begins to shrink = trend exhaustion (signal before BTC peaks at $69,000 in 2021)
2. The breathing rhythm of the energy bars
- The red bars shorten but the price reaches a new high = top divergence (a precursor to the crash after ETH peaks at $4000 in 2024)
- The green bars enlarge but the price reaches a new low = bottom divergence (the reversal signal when SOL hits $8 in 2023)
3. Zero axis watershed
- DIF line crosses above the zero axis = bull market confirmation (like BTC breaking $30,000 in October 2023)
- DIF line breaks below zero axis = bear market begins (like after LUNA's crash in May 2022)
4. Three-cycle resonance rule
- Daily MACD golden cross + weekly above the zero axis + 4-hour energy bars enlarging = high win-rate opportunity (key signal for BNB to rise from $200 to $600 in 2024)
5. Volume verification principle
- Any MACD signal must be accompanied by an increase in trading volume of over 30% to be valid (filters out 90% of false signals)
Three, my real-life turnaround case
2019: 200,000 → 1 million
- Captured BTC's rally from $3000 to $14,000
- MACD weekly bottom divergence + daily continuous 3 volume-up bullish candles confirm a buying point
2020: 1 million → 5 million
- When ETH breaks $200, the 4-hour MACD dual lines stabilize above the zero axis
- Use the "first position 5% + breakout add-on" strategy to capture the entire DeFi bull market
2021: 5 million → 20 million
- When BTC peaked at $69,000, I noticed a daily top divergence + energy bars shrank to 30% of the previous high
- Clear positions a week in advance to avoid a 58% crash
Four, three iron rules for survival
1. Stop-loss is like breathing
- Daily MACD death cross + breaking below the 20-day moving average = unconditional stop-loss
- No single loss exceeds 3% of the principal
2. Profit harvesting clock
- Withdraw principal when profits reach 30%
- Reduce position by 50% when a top divergence signal appears on the weekly chart
3. Absolute forbidden zone
- Don't touch coins outside the top 50 by market cap
- Do not trade 24 hours before and after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meetings
- Reject any "insider information"
Five, advice for losers
1. Print the K-line charts of your last three losing trades and review them using the MACD indicator. You will find:
- 80% of losses violate the basic MACD signal
- 90% of liquidations occur when energy bars are abnormally shrinking
2. Starting today:
- Reduce the leverage to below 3 times
- Analyze only 3 key MACD signals every day
- Stop trading immediately if losses exceed 5%
Final words
This 40 million was not earned by predicting the market, but accumulated little by little through over 3,000 buy and sell signals sent out by MACD. The market is always changing, but the traces of capital flow will always be etched on the energy bars of MACD.
(Follow to receive the (MACD top-bottom divergence practical manual), containing 12 classic case illustrations)
