Non-farm data "cliff-like correction"! A 10-fold error stuns the market, will the rate cut script be rewritten?
The financial market suddenly "changed its face"; clearly, the non-farm data was weak, which should have been positive for the market, yet it kept falling? Behind this lies a “data bomb” that caught everyone off guard.
Who would have thought that the non-farm employment data for May and June would be “cut in half”? Originally, the 144,000 new jobs in May shrank to just 19,000; June was even harsher, slashed from 147,000 down to only 14,000. Over two months, the data was revised down by 258,000—this is not just a simple error, the numbers differ by a full 10 times! Such a level of correction is rare to see, let alone hear about, yet it landed so realistically on the market's face.
Logically speaking, with employment data this poor, it should have paved the way for a rate cut. If this data had been made clear from the start, the Fed might have announced a rate cut yesterday. It's no wonder there is so much discussion about Powell now—in the face of such “unconcealable weakness,” maintaining the status quo inevitably leaves people puzzled.
What makes the market even more restless is this “misaligned correction.” The magnitude is absurdly large, leading to speculation: could this data have been “manipulated”? Regardless of how the officials explain it later, getting the market to fully trust it in the short term may not be so easy. Once panic sets in, the market's decline becomes an intuitive reaction.
But perhaps there is still a turning point. As the market gradually calms down, if this “grim” non-farm data is interpreted as a death knell for the Fed to “have to accelerate rate cuts,” then risk assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies might soon “turn from despair to joy.” After all, for the current market, the words “rate cut” are the most effective “shot in the arm.”
Next, it depends on how the Fed responds—will they loosen up in line with the data, or will they stubbornly hold out? The warmth or coldness of this market phase may hinge on this answer.
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