The long-awaited breakthrough for BTC has finally happened, but the direction chosen is downward, which is not necessarily a bad thing.

I remain optimistic about BTC in the long term, but I believe that after reaching a new high, it needs to undergo a reasonable correction to more steadily challenge new highs again, allowing the bull trend to take a firmer ground.

After breaking at the daily level, the key support is still the 113,700 I mentioned earlier, and now we need to observe the strength of support at this level.

The correction after the new high on the daily level can refer to the three-wave pattern of a retracement, which is quite enlightening in a long-term upward trend.

If we are to correlate with history, the movement after the new high in May can serve as a reference; the current phase is in the first wave of decline after the new high.

According to this rhythm, there will be a rally that does not reach a new high, forming the second wave, followed by a correction that breaks below a low point, constituting the third wave.

After the third wave ends, we need to carefully analyze it in conjunction with the macro environment and technical aspects to distinguish whether the third wave retracement ends, leading to a new rise, or whether it evolves from the third wave retracement into a deep decline of five waves.

However, in a non-bear market phase, the probability of a deep five-wave correction is not high, and currently, the broader environment shows no signs of a bear market, so a specific judgment based on the situation is needed at that time.

If it follows a third wave retracement, the entire process is expected to conclude in about four to five weeks, with a focus on changes in the market from mid to late August to early September.

Many people might be concerned about whether it will drop below 100,000. From the current perspective, unless a significant negative news occurs, it would be quite difficult.

The significant negatives mentioned here include: no interest rate cuts in 2025, a sharp deterioration in Sino-US trade relations, an escalation of geopolitical wars, and the US economy facing recession risks, among others.

Lastly, I want to emphasize that during an uptrend, don't blindly follow the crowd, and during a downtrend, don't panic and make impulsive decisions. The mindset of thinking that a rise means it's about to take off, and a drop means it's a waterfall, is really not advisable.#美国加征关税 #BTC走势分析