The dramatic fluctuations in the US stock market recently resonate sharply with the Federal Reserve's policy game: strong economic data earlier pushed US stocks to repeatedly hit new highs; however, in July, non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs, far below the expected 104,000, marking a new nine-month low. Coupled with the downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June, signals of a cooling labor market triggered a severe market adjustment, with the Nasdaq falling over 2% in a single day and the Dow Jones also plummeting by 542 points.

Behind this volatility lies a deep struggle over monetary policy. Despite the uproar over comments about firing Powell, the legal framework has long drawn a red line: according to the Federal Reserve Act, the President must meet statutory reasons such as "inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance" to remove a Federal Reserve governor, and requires a two-thirds majority support from both houses of Congress; mere policy disagreements do not constitute grounds for dismissal. More crucially, Powell's term as chairman does not end until May 2026, and his term as a governor extends to 2028. This institutional design creates a "policy inertia" that alleviates market concerns over short-term political interference.

In the Bitcoin market, the five consecutive daily declines have validated the effectiveness of the bearish trend. Currently, attention should be paid to two key points: first, the previous support level near $112,000, and second, the potential disturbances brought by the rising expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September—following the release of non-farm data, market expectations for a rate cut in September surged from 40% to 73%. The interplay of this macro variable with technical aspects necessitates a more layered operational strategy: medium to long-term short positions can gradually exit during this pullback, while short-term strategies can still follow the logic of short-selling on rebounds, with a focus on the pressure response in the $114,000-$115,000 range.

Interestingly, beneath the surface of synchronized pullbacks in the US stock market and Bitcoin, the divergence between the two is intensifying. Citibank's latest report predicts that Bitcoin may reach $135,000 by the end of the year, and could rise to $199,000 in an optimistic scenario. This expectation gap stems from the independent cyclicality of crypto assets and reflects the market's hedging demand against uncertainties in the traditional financial system. As policy games enter deeper waters, Bitcoin's dual attributes as "digital gold" and "risk asset" will manifest more complex volatility characteristics within the bearish landscape.#美国加征关税 #白宫数字资产报告 #美联储利率决议