Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. Department of Labor will simultaneously announce the July unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (NFP).
It may seem like just a routine macro data release, but in the crypto space, this moment often determines the life and death of longs and shorts. Below is a complete guide for 'watching the market and trading tonight.'
1. Why this employment report can overturn BTC.
1. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is currently priced at 70%. If tonight's data is extremely disappointing (unemployment rate < 4%, NFP > 250,000), rate cut expectations may be halved, the dollar will surge, and a BTC crash of 5–8% is not a dream.
2. Conversely, if the unemployment rate ≥ 4.3% and NFP < 100,000, a September rate cut becomes a certainty, the DXY will plunge, BTC will surge past 70k, and altcoins will celebrate.
3. Derivative leverage is extremely crowded: In the past 24 hours, the total open interest for BTC perpetual contracts across the network increased by 12%, and the long-short ratio is 2.8:1. 30 minutes before and after data release, liquidation walls can reach up to $300–500 million; a single spike can wipe out high-leverage positions.
2. 60 minutes before data release: Install the 'fuse' first.
1. Reduce leverage: No matter how certain you are about the direction, keep perpetual contract leverage ≤ 2x. Tonight is not about profit, it's about survival.
2. Set up hedges in advance:
• Keep the spot position unchanged, open 20–30% hedged short positions to avoid liquidation from spikes.
• Options players can buy 0.25 Δ put options expiring within 24 hours (data favorable for the dollar) or call options (data unfavorable for the dollar), with hedging costs only 0.8–1.2%, better than liquidation.
3. Close all contracts with high funding rates for altcoins: For popular coins like SOL, DOGE, and PEPE, the funding rate is 0.1%/8h, equivalent to an annualized 110%. When data fluctuates, the funding rate is killed first before the price.
3. 5 minutes after data release: Focus only on three prices.
1. BTC spot market: When the price difference among Coinbase, Binance, and OKX exceeds $100, it indicates a liquidity vacuum, and prices may be distorted; do not blindly chase orders.
2. DXY 1-minute K: If it spikes more than 0.5% instantly, BTC has a 95% probability of dropping simultaneously; vice versa.
3. U.S. 2-year Treasury yield: This is an instant thermometer for the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, > 4.5% is bearish for risk assets, < 4.2% is bullish.
4. 30 minutes after data release: The real market starts.
Historical statistics: Since 2019, the 'main wave' of BTC on non-farm payroll night has not been the immediate data response, but rather the 30–60 minutes after the U.S. stock market opens. The logic: macro funds rebalancing and retail ETF subscriptions and redemptions trigger this.
1. If the data is bearish for the dollar and BTC rallies: wait for a pullback to the 5 minute EMA20 before entering, don't chase high on the 1 minute chart; it's easy to buy at the tip of a spike (1-2%).
2. If the data is bullish for the dollar and BTC crashes: After breaking previous lows, observe whether the volume shrinks; if a contraction occurs, you can take a small position for a rebound; if the volume continues to increase, give up on bottom fishing, and it’s better to chase the next day.
5. Two extreme scenarios for tonight.
Scenario A: Unemployment rate 4.0%, NFP 200,000.
• The dollar skyrocketed, BTC spiked to 66k, ETH plummeted to 3200.
• Strategy: Set a grid buy order at 66k, increase position by 10% for every 1% drop, and reduce position on a 2% rebound, betting on volatility rather than direction.
Scenario B: Unemployment rate 4.4%, NFP 80,000.
• The dollar plunged, BTC broke 70k, altcoins surged 10% in 30 minutes.
• Strategy: Pre-load assets in SOL, PEPE, WIF spot, only open 1x long on contracts, ride the trend instead of leveraging.
6. The last three pieces of advice.
1. Tonight is not a night for making money, it's a night for risk control. The difference between making 10% and losing 50% is never about direction, it's about position size.
2. Never gamble with living expenses, and don't borrow to chase the non-farm data. The crypto space is not short of opportunities, but lacks capital to survive until the next opportunity.
3. One hour before and after data release, withdrawal channels on major exchanges may be congested, transfer USDT to self-custody wallets on-chain in advance to prevent black swan events.
Bookmark and share this tweet, let's witness the long-short meat grinder together at 20:30 tonight. May we all exit safely with profits.
Keep an eye on VIC, ATM, IOTX, MEME.