The interpretation of the lead trader is mainly to analyze and disassemble the real performance and trading data of the lead trader to help the copy trader understand the copy trading model and better familiarize themselves with the lead trader's trading habits and operating preferences; it does not constitute any investment advice, and try to interpret it objectively;
Interpretation of Lead Trader @27直走
What attracted me the most at first was the absolute rate of return, the ROI was as high as 17351.89% (not the latest data, the peak ROI was close to 200 times, and the recent rate of return has declined). It turned out that a hundred times the return was really not a dream
In addition, as a lead trader who has been a lead trader for 20+ days, he quickly made the list of #Binance smart recommendation list due to the very bright data, and has been displayed on the homepage of the list for 3-5 days;
I. Core data display
Let's take a look at the core data of the lead trader as usual
ROI: It can't be described as high, it can be said to be extremely high! We will talk about the reasons later, beware of the reasons for its formation, which may be caused by small capital for huge profits;
Lead trading amount (AUM): Judging from the current number scale alone, it is still relatively large. As of before the report was generated, the assets under management (AUM) were 1,268,864 USDT, and the own margin was 520,039 USDT, which shows the market's high recognition of its strategy, and the copy trading quota has long been full.
Sharpe Ratio: The lead trader has turned on and off the project 14 times before, and this project has only been started for less than 30 days. Binance has not yet given a valid Sharpe Ratio, but in my opinion it should be exaggerated.
Number of copy traders: 600 people have reached the upper limit, and no application has been made to increase the upper limit again;
Copy trading profit and loss: When I paid attention to it before, the overall copy trading community was positively profitable, but from the perspective of the profit performance in the past 7 days, both the lead trading profit and the copy trading profit are negative, and the specific reason needs to be combined with the copy traders' profit and loss distribution below.
Win rate: The lead trader clearly stated in his signature that "only focus on high returns, not win rate", and the actual operation method has also been verified. The win rate data is indeed a bit unsightly; it verifies his strategy concept of "not comparing win rate".
However, the key contradiction lies in the fact that such an astonishing rate of return corresponds to a negative cumulative profit and loss. This contrast points directly to a core issue - a high ROI may stem from a very small initial principal. It's like making 10,000 USDT from 100 USDT, the rate of return is 10000%, but when the capital scale expands to 100,000 USDT, it is as difficult as climbing to the sky to replicate the same proportion of return.
For copiers, this means that the funds you invest are facing the reality of "not making money" after his capital scale expands, rather than the environment when high returns were created early on.
II. Profit and Loss Performance
The self-positioning of "27 Straight" is "only focus on high returns, not win rate", which is fully reflected in the data. His nominal win rate is only 28.57%, which means that most transactions are losing money, but the maximum single profit (383,700 USDT) is 6.82 times the maximum single loss (56,268 USDT)
In addition, the core contradiction between the rate of return and the cumulative profit and loss mentioned earlier, it is not difficult to see from the lead trader's operation data that the initial lead trading margin on July 6 was only 3000U and there was no transfer in and operation reflected later, that is to say, the existing margin scale is all from his personal profit; then look at the lead trader's actual position data and it is not difficult to find that its high income comes from two large profit orders, with a cumulative profit of more than 50wu. Most of the other operations' positions and orders are in the hundreds, thousands, or even tens of thousands of profits and losses, and the losses are obviously greater than the profit positions;
The two high-profit orders combined with its initial small margin have created its ultra-high ROI index; but this may not be a good thing for copy traders, if you can't get the high profits at the top, copy traders may face long-term losses;
III. Trading habits and preferences
Trading direction: If calculated from the end of May when the data is available, there are about 300 position orders in total, and more than 260+ long orders account for 98+%, which is a firm bull party; this situation may be easier to deal with in the face of a unilateral market, but once the market appears to be corrected or significantly oscillating, large losses may occur.
Currency preferences: Although BTC accounts for a relatively high proportion in its asset distribution, judging from the recent 50 trading histories, its trading varieties are very extensive, including a large number of small and medium market capitalization, high volatility altcoins, such as SPK, ASR, PENGU, TRU, etc.; these currencies are often "hot spots" or "potential" currencies with high volatility, which can achieve rapid results while also facing large losses
Position Management: By analyzing historical positions, it can be found that the trader tends to withstand large floating losses rather than strictly execute stop losses. They also have their own tolerance for large drawdowns; you can see the specific cases in the detailed version of the report
Profit realization: Contrary to the treatment of losses, when the position is in a profitable state, the trader shows great patience to capture the complete trend market. You can see the case in the full version of the report;
IV. Copy Trader Perspective
The profit and loss distribution of the copy traders is very close, which shows that the experience of copying the trader is like a "roller coaster". Starting to copy at the wrong time (for example, after its huge profits are realized, during a period of continuous losses) is very likely to lead to losses.
When the report analysis was formed before, the overall profit and loss of the copy traders was relatively balanced, and the profit earners even exceeded the losers; but since the continuous losses in its positions in the past few days, the number of losers has obviously increased, accounting for about 65% of its copy traders; this is closely related to the entry time of the copy traders. The "27 Straight" strategy is not continuously profitable, so if you don't catch up with the large profit orders, you may face long-term losses;
From the distribution of copy traders' copying time, less than 40% of users have been copying for more than 15 days, and most users are still copy traders formed after being listed on Binance's list of recommendations;
V. Comprehensive evaluation
High-risk, high-return "home run" type player
The core of the trader's strategy is to pursue extremely high single profits, rather than high win rates. His self-introduction "only focus on high returns, not win rate" is highly consistent with the data performance. As a very distinctive "trend speculator". He does not pursue stable compound interest growth, but exchanges for the opportunity to capture a few huge trend market conditions by withstanding a large number of small losses. Its trading system presents an extreme "positive skew" distribution - losses are controllable (but the absolute value of a single loss is still large), and profits have huge room for imagination.
Copy Trading Recommendations
Risk tolerance must match this highly volatile, high-drawdown strategy. Please be sure to follow his advice: "Remember, don't go all in, position management is very important".
It is necessary to pay close attention to the fact that its cumulative profit and loss is negative, and do not be misled by the high ROI;
Retain attention to the overall market trend, and consider suspending or stopping copying when the market shows obvious downward signals.
Pay attention to its position, and the historical 14 project switches may lead to closing positions after facing large losses;
The above analysis is conducted by WolfDAO (x: @10xwolfdao) to collect data and conduct comprehensive analysis, which does not constitute actual investment advice; friends are welcome to join the exchange, if you have a lead trader analysis you want to see, you can also tell us in the comment area
If you think the content is good, don't forget to follow us! Welcome to support the author with one-click three-link (like, comment, forward)
#以太坊十周年 #BNB创新高 #合约带单 #美联储利率决议
$BTC $ETH