0730 Evening Market Interpretation

Let's continue to pay attention to today's market and market conditions,

$BTC

The price of BTC is $118,205.02, down 0.52% from before.

Market sentiment shows a clear differentiation; retail trading in the spot market is very active with high participation enthusiasm, while the futures market is relatively quiet with low participation from whales (large holders).​

In terms of operations, it is necessary to remind everyone to remain cautious. The MVRV ratio has reached 2.3, which is at a historically high level, indicating that the asset may be overvalued.

The whale ratio on exchanges is as high as 0.98, meaning that large holders may be transferring chips to exchanges, and potential selling pressure needs to be monitored.

Regarding support levels, the financial situation shows a differentiated state, with a net outflow of 6,168 BTC from exchanges in 24 hours, which is a positive signal; however, the total open interest has decreased by 1.45%, indicating that some leveraged positions are being liquidated, and the long-short game is quite intense. ​

Macroeconomic Level

1. The recovery situation in the Eurozone is improving, with Germany approving a record fiscal expansion budget, and Eurozone GDP data for the second quarter exceeding expectations, which may benefit the cryptocurrency market.

2. The U.S. has inflation concerns, and tariffs imposed on the EU may raise short-term inflation. If inflation rebounds, the Federal Reserve's tightening stance may put pressure on the cryptocurrency market.

3. The border dispute talks between Cambodia and Thailand have failed, and there is a black swan risk in the geopolitical tension in Southeast Asia. ​

There are three events to watch

1. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on July 31 at 02:00, pay attention to Powell's statements;

2. The U.S. second-quarter GDP data to be released tonight;

3. And China's policy dynamics. ​

Operation Suggestions

In terms of strategy, aggressive traders are advised to wait until after the Federal Reserve's decision before acting; conservative traders should maintain a wait-and-see approach, focusing on whale-related indicators; those with no positions can continue to wait for a clear market direction before making arrangements.

Market fluctuations can also be monitored with our little tool

Crypto Weather Forecast: https://weather3.wolfdao.com/