FOMC

The Fed just cut rates by 25 bps and ended QT — normally a perfect setup for risk assets.
Yet BTC slipped below $110K instead of rallying.
Classic “buy the rumor, sell the news”?
Powell called the economy “complex”:
risks to jobs are rising, but inflation remains high.
He framed the cut as risk management, not a pivot.
December guidance? Still uncertain.

Historically, BTC dips right after FOMC decisions —
only to recover later as liquidity returns.
This time might rhyme.

Key levels:
• Support — $106K–$102K
• Resistance — $111.7K → $115.9K → ATH $126K
Meanwhile, the end of QT means the Fed stops draining liquidity —
a silent bullish shift few talk about.
Add in a fragile U.S.–China truce,
and the market finally gets a short breath.

BTC turns 17 today — from “peer-to-peer cash” to a $2 T asset at the center of a $4 T industry.
Still volatile, still young —
but every cycle it grows up a little more.
#BTC
#Macro
#fomc
#Markets

$BTC
In this post, let’s break down how rate cuts and other big macro events price in before they happen — and how you can position smartly to stay ahead of the move. 👇
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🔹 Why Price Dips After “Good News”?
If we all expect a rate cut and it actually happens… why does the market still dump?
Example — September 17th, 25bps cut. Everyone was hyped, yet price fell.
👉 Reason: It was already priced in.
Markets usually pump 1–2 weeks before the expected event — then sell off once it’s confirmed.
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🔹 Market Reaction Scenarios
Event Reaction Reason
No Change 🔴 Hard Dump Expectations missed
25bps Cut 🔴 Dump Already priced in
50bps Cut 🟢 Pump Unexpected surprise
When a bullish event is expected, it’s often already in the charts before the announcement.
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🔹 Expected vs Unexpected
Expected Events (Rate cuts, CPI, halving): price in before the event.
Unexpected Events (War, hacks, policy shifts): market reacts instantly.
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🔹 How to Position 💼
1️⃣ Start preparing 1–2 weeks early.
2️⃣ Check forecasts & Polymarket odds (majority bet = most likely).
3️⃣ If it plays out as expected → close position.
4️⃣ If something unexpected happens → hold/add.
5️⃣ If “no change” when a cut was expected → flip short.
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⚠️ Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research.
💭 What’s your take? How do you position before FOMC events? Drop your thoughts below 👇
#Macro #fomc #RateCut #cryptotrading #Marketpsychology

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $111,359, marking a slight decline from previous levels. Meanwhile, markets are eagerly awaiting the October Federal Reserve meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. This move would bring the target range for the federal funds rate down to 3.75–4.00%, continuing the monetary easing cycle that began earlier this year.
While some traders anticipate a post-Fed rally, others warn that Bitcoin may once again follow its familiar pattern — a short-term drop right after the announcement, followed by a strong recovery.

Markets Have Already Priced in the Cut
According to data from CME Group and Kalshi, markets are almost unanimously expecting a rate reduction —

the probability of a 25-basis-point cut stands between 97.8% and 99%.

Open interest in Fed futures contracts remains high, confirming that most investors have already priced in the move.
These expectations have recently helped push Bitcoin above $113,000, before a modest correction brought it back to current levels.

Prediction markets on Kalshi have recorded over $34 million in volume related to this event, underscoring how confident traders are that the Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle.

All Eyes on Jerome Powell
Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that the rate cut itself is unlikely to surprise markets, as it’s already fully priced in.

The real market mover, he said, will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks.
Traders will closely watch whether Powell signals an end to quantitative tightening (QT) and hints at a possible return to quantitative easing (QE) — potentially as early as 2026.
Daan also pointed out that markets are already assigning a 95%+ probability to another rate cut in December 2025, meaning Powell’s tone on liquidity and balance sheet management could significantly impact the U.S. dollar and crypto markets alike.

Bitcoin and the Familiar “FOMC Pattern”
Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted a recurring trend in Bitcoin’s behavior around Fed meetings —

after each of the last three FOMC decisions, Bitcoin dropped between 6% and 8%, only to set a new all-time high (ATH) before the next meeting.
“$BTC dropped 6–8% after the last 3 FOMC meetings,

and made a new ATH before the next one.

Will this pattern repeat again?” wrote Pillows on X.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could once again rebound after a short-term dip — potentially targeting the $120,000 zone in the weeks ahead.

Short-Term Volatility, Long-Term Strength
Historically, Fed rate cuts often trigger short-term sell-offs in Bitcoin as traders react to uncertainty and reposition their capital.

But once the dust settles, greater liquidity and cheaper borrowing costs usually support a renewed uptrend.
If the pattern holds, the coming weeks could bring:

🔹 A temporary drop in BTC following the Fed decision

🔹 A swift recovery and renewed rally into November

Summary
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $111,359, down slightly amid investor caution before the Fed meeting.

Markets expect a 25-basis-point rate cut, with Powell’s comments likely to determine short-term market direction.

Historically, post-FOMC dips have been followed by strong recoveries — and traders now wonder whether the same playbook will unfold again.
All eyes are on Washington, as Bitcoin waits to see whether history will repeat itself after the October Fed meeting.


#bitcoin , #fomc , #Fed , #Powell , #CryptoNews

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,,The information and views presented in this article are intended solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice in any situation. The content of these pages should not be regarded as financial, investment, or any other form of advice. We caution that investing in cryptocurrencies can be risky and may lead to financial losses.“

The Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25% on October 29, 2025, marks a pivotal shift in U.S. monetary policy. With the new federal funds rate now standing between 3.75% and 4.00%, this move comes amid growing concerns about economic slowdown, tightening liquidity, and the impact of an ongoing government shutdown that has disrupted access to key data. Yet beyond Wall Street, the ripples of this decision are spreading into global financial systems — including the crypto market, which often reacts faster than traditional sectors to changes in monetary policy.
The Fed’s latest decision represents the second rate cut of the year, highlighting its growing concern over weakening job data and consumer spending. While inflation remains above the 2% target, officials are now balancing two conflicting pressures — maintaining price stability and preventing a deeper slowdown. The labor market, once the backbone of U.S. resilience, is showing cracks. Job creation has cooled, wage growth is slowing, and consumer sentiment has declined to its lowest level since 2023.
The complicating factor is the ongoing government shutdown, which has delayed vital economic reports such as non-farm payrolls and CPI data. This means the Fed’s move was made without its usual breadth of evidence — a bold, risk-laden decision signaling confidence in its forward projections rather than backward-looking data.
Markets responded swiftly to the Fed’s announcement. Equity indices rose modestly as investors interpreted the move as a sign that the tightening cycle is nearing its end. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped slightly, reflecting renewed demand for risk assets, while gold prices climbed on expectations of a looser monetary stance.
Asian and European markets also followed the trend, with emerging economies seeing stronger capital inflows as lower U.S. rates reduce global borrowing costs. For traders, this signals a potential rotation from defensive assets into growth and innovation sectors — including digital assets.
In the crypto world, rate cuts are often perceived as bullish catalysts. Lower interest rates typically reduce yields in traditional assets, driving investors to seek higher returns in alternative markets like crypto. Within hours of the Fed’s announcement, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a sharp uptick in trading volume, briefly reclaiming the $72,000 level before stabilizing. Ethereum (ETH) also gained momentum, rising above $3,800 amid renewed optimism for DeFi growth.
Altcoins followed suit, with liquidity flowing back into mid-cap projects tied to infrastructure and scaling solutions such as Linea and Morphic. Historically, whenever the Fed signals a looser policy stance, liquidity flows toward risk-on assets — and crypto tends to be among the first beneficiaries.
This renewed confidence could drive a short-term rally, especially if investors anticipate further easing in early 2026.
This particular rate cut is more than a macro headline — it could shape the entire crypto narrative heading into 2026. A lower interest rate environment generally supports speculative capital formation, venture investment, and token development funding. For institutional players, the reduced cost of capital opens doors for new crypto-related ETFs, custody solutions, and digital asset funds.
Retail traders, too, benefit indirectly — lower rates often translate into higher crypto exposure as investors diversify their portfolios in search of yield. Stablecoin supply expansion, higher DeFi TVL (total value locked), and increased NFT marketplace activity are all possible second-order effects of easier monetary conditions.
However, the path ahead isn’t entirely smooth. Some analysts warn that cutting rates too soon could reignite inflationary pressures, especially if commodity prices or wage growth rebound unexpectedly. The Fed’s challenge is to support the economy without triggering another inflation wave — a delicate balancing act that could test market confidence.
In crypto, that uncertainty translates into volatility. Traders might witness sharp price swings as markets digest new data and adjust expectations for future cuts. This creates both opportunity and risk — disciplined strategy and risk management become crucial during such transitions.
One under-discussed factor in this policy decision is the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. With several departments closed and key economic data unavailable, the Fed’s decision-making process is operating with limited visibility. This has introduced a unique layer of uncertainty into global forecasting models.
Crypto investors, who already navigate volatile markets, may find this macro opacity both a challenge and an advantage — reduced clarity in traditional markets often amplifies crypto’s appeal as an alternative, decentralized hedge.
As liquidity returns to the global economy, sectors closely tied to blockchain innovation could experience accelerated growth. Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols may benefit from higher on-chain activity, while Layer-2 networks like Linea, Morphic, and Hemi could attract new developer and investor interest.
Historically, each period of monetary easing has coincided with crypto expansion — from Bitcoin’s rally after the 2020 stimulus to the rise of DeFi during the 2021 recovery phase. This current pivot might initiate the next liquidity-driven cycle, where capital migrates toward innovation and yield-based ecosystems.
The tone of the market remains cautiously optimistic. Institutional investors are rebalancing, hedge funds are reopening crypto strategies, and venture capital is re-entering the digital asset space after months of contraction. The “fear-to-greed” index for crypto has moved upward, showing early signs of a sentiment shift.
Still, traders must stay alert. Macro-driven rallies often bring sudden corrections, and the absence of complete economic data means that surprises could easily derail the optimism. As always, flexibility, patience, and informed decision-making are the best defenses against uncertainty.
Looking forward, much depends on the next two FOMC meetings. If inflation data continues to ease and labor markets weaken further, another 25 bps cut by early 2026 could follow. For crypto, this could mean sustained capital inflow and potentially new all-time highs in major assets.
However, if inflation resurges or global energy prices climb, the Fed could pause its easing path — introducing fresh volatility into both traditional and digital markets.
The October 2025 rate cut represents a crucial turning point — not just for the U.S. economy, but for the interconnected web of global finance and crypto innovation. While traditional investors debate whether this marks the beginning of an easing cycle, the crypto community is already positioning for the next liquidity wave.
Every rate cut brings with it both opportunity and risk. But for those who understand how macro policy shapes digital asset behavior, this moment might be the quiet start of another major crypto cycle.

RRK View
In my opinion, this Fed rate cut could act as a quiet ignition point for the next crypto bull phase. It may not explode overnight, but the shift in liquidity will slowly fuel risk appetite again — and that’s where crypto thrives.

#RRKInsights #fomc #CryptoNewss