Federal Reserve Meeting Next Week: Will Economic Data "Time Bombs" Ignite Policy Direction?
Just before the bell rings for the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, the nerves of the global capital markets are stretched tight like a steel wire. The decision-making team under Powell will face a "hellish" decision-making test next week—trade protectionism is surging, inflation data is elusive, and U.S. economic indicators are showing an unsettling "two-faced" condition. What holds the market's breath is the upcoming "data nuclear explosion week" that will focus on releasing three key signals; these data points may become the fatal leverage to shift global monetary policy direction.
【Political and Economic Storm Eye】
- "Data Bomb": Next Wednesday, the U.S. second quarter GDP annualized growth rate is forecasted to reach 2.4%, but economists warn that this rebound hides a "bubble effect" from the narrowing trade deficit, and the weakness of the real economy may be masked by short-term data.
- "Employment Fog": Friday's non-farm payroll report may confirm that the labor market is cooling down. The surge in hiring in the education sector in June will become history, with new job numbers expected to sharply decrease by 20% month-over-month, and the unemployment rate may breach the 4.2% warning line, revealing the cautious hiring picture of enterprises.
- "Inflation Transmission": The core PCE inflation index in personal consumption expenditures for June is expected to accelerate to 0.4% month-over-month, indicating that the chain reaction of tariff barriers is spreading to end consumers, and price stickiness may be more resilient than the Federal Reserve anticipates.
These seemingly isolated data points are like scattered barrels of gunpowder; any unexpected fluctuation could trigger a dramatic shift in policy path. As the global economic recovery is still limping along, every slight policy adjustment by the Federal Reserve could trigger a capital earthquake in emerging markets. Market analysts warn that next week is highly likely to become a "stress test week" for assessing the flexibility of Federal Reserve policy, and this smoke-free economic battlefield may determine the global financial landscape for the coming years.
