Major trade news between China and the U.S., and the EU and the U.S.! Bitcoin remains strong, approaching $120,000, with more volatility to come?

On Monday (July 28), during the early Asian trading session, Bitcoin maintained a strong position above $119,000, continuing the upward momentum driven by recent institutional developments and breakthroughs in U.S.-EU trade. The CoinDesk 20 index rose by 2.37% to 4,099.18 points, indicating a continued recovery in the overall market.

Bitcoin has stabilized above $119,000, following an agreement between the U.S. and the EU, with data from CoinGlass showing that most short positions have been cleared.

Ethereum is currently priced at $3,867.76, up 3%; the on-chain fundamentals are strong—28% of ETH is staked, exchange balances have dropped to an 8-year low, and new buyer inflows continue to rise.

Fundamental news:

Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a framework trade agreement in Turnberry, Scotland, whereby the U.S. will impose a 15% import tariff on EU goods, avoiding a previously threatened tariff that could have reached up to 30%. This move effectively calmed market fears of an escalation in the trade war.

The agreement also includes a $600 billion investment by the EU in the U.S. energy and defense sectors over the next three years and a commitment to reducing Europe's dependence on Russian energy. Tariffs on steel and aluminum products will remain temporarily at 50%.

Bitcoin subsequently surged close to $120,000, reflecting an overall increase in investor risk appetite. This trade agreement has invigorated Bitcoin and brought positive sentiment to the entire crypto market. Analysts like Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors believe that the reduction of trade risks is one of the key factors behind this market rally and may also pave the way for institutional investment into the Bitcoin market.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that BTC/USD is nearing a critical recovery zone. It is currently trying to stabilize above the 10-day moving average at the daily close, maintaining a rebound from near $114,500 despite the market's disregard for one of the largest BTC sell-offs in history. This rise coincided with news that the U.S. and China agreed to further postpone the introduction of mutual trade tariffs.

According to sources cited by the South China Morning Post, it is expected that China and the United States will extend the ceasefire period for tariffs by another three months during talks held in Sweden. The third round of China-U.S. negotiations is scheduled for Monday in Stockholm, aiming to resolve the long-standing trade disputes at the core of the two countries' trade war.

Following the preliminary agreement reached in June between Beijing and Washington to end weeks of tariff escalation, China must reach a lasting agreement with the Trump administration by August 12. If an agreement is not reached, tariffs exceeding 100% could further disrupt global supply chains.

Additionally, according to Glassnode data, Bitcoin's 'realized market capitalization' (the total value calculated based on the last movement of each BTC) has surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, indicating that the overall market valuation has reached a new high.

Bitcoin is currently consolidating above $118,000 after reaching an all-time high of $122,700. The rise has prompted long-term holders to sell while attracting new buyers and additional capital. BTC's dominance rate is currently at 60.98%, indicating a slight rotation of funds towards other crypto assets (altcoins).

Significant trading events:

Galaxy Digital announced on Friday the completion of a $9 billion Bitcoin transaction on behalf of an investor from the 'Satoshi era,' marking one of the largest transactions in history. This transaction involved 80,000 BTC and is reportedly part of their estate planning strategy.

Despite the enormous trading volume, price fluctuations remain limited, indicating that the current Bitcoin market's liquidity is significantly constrained by long-term holding (HODL) behavior. In this 'supply shock' state, the market can even absorb $9 billion in selling pressure without experiencing severe volatility.

Market expectations and confidence:

Traders on Polymarket are currently predicting a 24% chance that Bitcoin will break above $125,000 by the end of July, up from 18% a week ago. This increase in probability reflects growing market confidence in macro-positive factors and on-chain data.

"BTC needs to break above $119,500 to achieve a significant rise. If it fails to do so, this consolidation will continue," summarized cryptocurrency investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows in a post on platform X, "I believe BTC may break this level next month, which would initiate the next round of increases."

"Strong resistance is forming around $119,000 to $120,000, with a dense liquidation cluster indicating this," agreed the crypto analysis platform Coinank while reviewing its liquidity data.

Meanwhile, the latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that the 'maximum pain' point for BTC shorts is around $119,650. If Bitcoin challenges the historical high near $123,000 again, the total amount of short liquidations will exceed $1.1 billion.