🇺🇸 FOMC UPDATE: 96.3% Odds No Rate Cut This Wednesday 🚫
🔎 What the Market Predicts
* Polymarket prices show a 96.3% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the July 29–30 meeting. Only ~3% expect a 25 bps cut.
🧠 Why the Fed Is Staying Cautious
1. Data-Driven Policy: Chairman Powell continues to insist on durable inflation improvements before cutting rates.
2. Stubborn Inflation: Recent PCE readings show pricing pressures remain elevated — the Fed doesn’t want to risk a premature move.
3. Political Independence: Despite public pressure (notably from Trump), the Fed is prioritizing credibility over politics.
✅ How This Impacts Crypto
* ⛔️Short-Term: Choppy Action Markets respond to clarity—not a cut—likely resulting in sideway or muted trading for assets like BTC, ETH, and altcoins.
* 🟢Long-Term: Deferred Bull Run Once the Fed does pivot, expect significant upside. Studies show that disinflationary shocks historically drive Bitcoin higher, while volatile rate events spike price swings.
* ⚪️Fed rate pause ≠ crypto collapse Rate cuts fuel risk assets eventually—delayed gratification.
* 🟢Dollar strength exerts downward pressure until rate pivot: crypto volatility expected to compress.
* 🚨Trading Tip: Use dips near $115–118K (BTC) or $3.5–3.8K (ETH) as DCA opportunities ahead of rate confirmation.
* 🔺Bitcoin Cold Phase: Still tight — RSI and volume show consolidation.
* 🚀If Fed surprises issuing dovish tone → BTC could surge toward $125K+.
* 📈Ethereum & Alts likely to follow—but watch funding rates and spot inflows.
* 📊Timing matters: September remains the most probable window for a rate cut (~50% odds per Polymarket), with November less so (~23%) as per CME FedWatch.
🎯 DCA wisely, watch for post-FOMC setup, and let macro signal guide strategy.
🟢Always DYOR BEFORE A TRADE !
#FOMC #FedWatch #Polymarket #CryptoMarkets #Bitcoin #Ethereum