"Super Macro Weekly Outlook" Seven Signals Pressing Down, Market May Face Directional Choice!
This week is a standard super macro week, where any detail may influence market trends.
1. Actual Progress of Tariff Policies:
Currently, the US and Europe, as well as the US and Japan, have basically finalized the tariff framework and set the overall tone. Next, the market is most concerned about the progress of US-China negotiations and whether the US-Canada and US-Mexico agreements will be reached. If the US and China cannot come to an agreement, high tariff options may be implemented directly, significantly increasing market volatility.
2. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting (Thursday):
There is not much suspense regarding this interest rate decision; the focus is on whether Powell's attitude softens. He has been under pressure recently, and the market hopes to see signs of a more lenient stance; if dovish signals are released, it will support risk assets.
3. Bank of Japan Decision:
The focus is not on whether to adjust interest rates, but whether the Bank of Japan's monetary policy will start to consider a more neutral path after reaching a tariff consensus with the US. If signals of future tightening are revealed, the yen and Japanese stocks may experience significant volatility.
4. Non-Farm Payroll Data on Friday:
The focus is on whether private sector employment continues to decline, especially whether the services and manufacturing sectors still show weakness. If the data falls short of expectations again, the Federal Reserve's policy expectations will be further disrupted.
5. July Political Meeting at the University of Tokyo:
This is a core window to observe the direction of China's economy and policy tone for the second half of the year. The market expects to see clearer and more forceful fiscal and monetary stimulus signals under the current economic pressure.
6. June PCE Price Index Release:
The previous CPI and PPI have already provided clues to the market; this PCE data will further verify the direction of the inflation path and will either strengthen or weaken the market's pricing of the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
7. Arrival of Earnings Season for Major US Tech Companies:
Giants like Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon, and AMD will release their earnings reports, which serve as a ballast for the US stock market. If the performance is below expectations, tech stocks may face adjustment pressure; conversely, it may help stabilize or even strengthen the index.
Starting Wednesday, significant macro events will emerge one after another, and each change may have a profound impact on market sentiment and direction. Trading should remain flexible, and holding large positions should be approached with caution.
