July 30th is Ethereum's birthday.
This big brother of smart contract platforms is about to enter its tenth year; logically, it should be a celebratory, positive, and rising atmosphere. However, the market seems unkind; every year around this time, the market either crashes or surges and then falls back. Investors treat 'Ethereum anniversary equals decline' as a curse.
Most importantly, these drops often coincide exactly with 'macro meeting weeks': monetary policy meetings, non-farm data, Federal Reserve speeches... Ethereum seems to be that fish caught in multiple layers of time, only able to jump sideways in volatility.
So, is this chain effect of 'meeting on anniversary, dropping during meetings' purely coincidental, or has the market planned it all along?
Today, we will uncover this 'fake celebration, true sell-off' script.
📉 Reviewing the past three years: Ethereum's 'celebration' market has completely crashed.
Have you noticed a pattern?
Every year during Ethereum's 'birthday week', there's either a monetary policy meeting, preparations for data release, or a series of macroeconomic shocks hitting the market; the celebration turns into a scene of being beaten.
During this period, ETH's trading behavior is also highly consistent: funds cashing out early, liquidity withdrawing, and technicals luring in buyers only to reverse—forming a consistent expectation of 'Ethereum anniversary = stage high point'.
Why is it hammered every year? It's not that ETH is weak; the environment is too toxic.
ETH is not weak; it has ecology, narrative, and sentiment, but it just loses at the timing.
'Anniversaries' always coincide with monetary policy meetings.
FOMC is often scheduled for the last week of July, coincidentally hitting right before and after Ethereum's birthday (July 30th)—this is an unavoidable nemesis for Ethereum.
'Celebration activities' have no substantial benefits.
Apart from a few foundation statements, commemorative NFTs, and community AMAs, Ethereum's anniversary basically doesn't bring substantial benefits. The market will still cash out.
ETH belongs to high-beta assets, most afraid of macro fluctuations.
Once the Federal Reserve releases hawkish signals, ETH often exposes risks earlier than BTC—it has higher volatility, and most positions are structurally leveraged, making it less resilient.
Social sentiment is one-sided, which instead becomes a counter-indicator.
Every year during these days, the community voices the idea of 'birthday benefits' more loudly, which often leads to a reverse 'highs trapping people'.
So what about this year? Can ETH turn the tide?
In 2025, Ethereum's birthday coincides with the landing of monetary policy meetings, the announcement of EU and US tariff agreements, and a dense schedule of tech stock earnings reports, all heavy macro cycles overlapping.
ETH's current structure also deserves caution:
The upper 4150 is a historical dense pressure point.
The lower 3820 is the key rebound starting point from earlier;
If it cannot stabilize above 3880 after a pullback, it is very likely to form a 'false breakout' and further test the 3700-3600 range.
The current rise of ETH is essentially still driven by liquidity rebound, not a structural bull market; it will reveal its true nature as soon as negative news comes.
Trading advice: How to survive under the 'Ethereum curse'?
Be cautious with short-term operations; don't chase highs.
If it can't hold above 4150, do not chase; only consider light long positions if it can hold 3880.
Medium-term funds will enter only when the direction is clear.
The direction hasn’t broken yet, don’t go heavy; only after the FOMC meeting and non-farm data will the market show real signals.
Taking advantage of hedging is actually an opportunity.
If you are a long-term holder, the period around the anniversary is a good time to hedge, at least to offset some potential declines.
Final words.
'Ethereum anniversary does not rise but falls' may seem like a niche joke, but if you review these past years, you’ll find it’s more like the market's 'old script'.
ETH can rise, but it will never rise above the macro price setter. As long as this script continues, 'must drop during meetings' is not just a joke but a reality that must be included in trading strategies.
Will Ethereum's birthday stage the same scene this year?
