Hold steady, wait for the final word from "Old Bao" on the market.
Last night's volatility wasn't big, but it wasn't small either. To put it bluntly, it was just "sliding sideways." Do you think the market is truly stable? Not necessarily. After all, everyone wants a piece of the macroeconomic pot right now. Market nerves are on edge, risk appetite is low, and everyone wants to wait and see what happens.
This week has been chock-full of things, literally piling up to the ceiling. Want to rush in and buy the dip? That's not gambling, it's gambling. I'm not one to make orders based on intuition. Unless I'm truly in trouble, then I'll consider buying some "golden cabbage." But right now, the market is fluctuating between 117,000 and 120,000. There's little value in participating in this range, and the cost-effectiveness is extremely low.
Sentimentally, the market is quite stable. No one's shouting about a market crash. Large investors are watching from the sidelines, and small investors have learned their lesson and are less willing to take on the short-term gains.
This week's data releases come one after another: PCE, non-farm payrolls, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting—all crucial events. The key lies in what Powell says. Everyone knows there won't be a rate cut in July, but the market is truly focused on whether there's a chance of easing in September.
To put it bluntly, the market is currently "waiting for a signal." Once Powell speaks on Wednesday, everyone will know which way to go. Both market conditions and sentiment will have a directional shift at that moment.
Back to the market
Last night, the Bitcoin price was pushed back to 119.5K on the daily chart. Any upward movement must first hold here. If it fails to hold, it will likely look back to 117K, or even 115.6K. Breaking through will lead to a run towards 110K. Conversely, if 117K holds, there's a chance it could reach 120K. The key is that the market needs a signal—and that signal will have to come after Powell's speech at the earliest.
ETH has actually been quite stable over the past two days, holding steady at 3880. If it holds above 3880 in the short term, it could test 4000 or even 4100. Conversely, if it falls below 3770, there's no need to hesitate, and I recommend immediately cashing out any remaining positions.
Furthermore, from a technical perspective, a golden cross between the monthly fast and slow lines is imminent. You know, when was the last time Ethereum formed a golden cross? In December 2023, the price was only 2440, and it has since doubled. So, if it truly holds above 3880, there could be up to 1500 points of upside potential from August to October.
