On July 25, 2025, CEO of the analytical platform CryptoQuant, Ki Yong Joo, publicly acknowledged that the traditional theory of Bitcoin cycles no longer works. In March, he predicted the end of the bull cycle when the price $BTC hovered around $83,000, citing whale sales and a lack of new capital. However, Bitcoin rose to $123,236 in July, contradicting his forecasts. Joo admitted his mistake, apologized to investors, and stated that market dynamics had changed due to institutional influence. Instead of whales selling coins to retail investors, they are passing them on to new long-term holders, such as funds and companies. This has led to an increase in the number of holders over traders.
Experts note that institutional players, including ETFs and corporate treasuries, are stabilizing the market by reducing speculative volatility. Joo emphasized that the old cycle based on retail hype has lost its relevance. However, some analysts, such as Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity, argue that the four-year cycle persists. This debate highlights the need for new approaches to market analysis.
The news sparked lively discussions in the crypto community, prompting investors to rethink their strategies.
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