CryptoQuant

Ki Young Ju Says Event-Driven Price Moves Are Challenging On-Chain ModelsCryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin’s recent price action is putting traditional cycle theory to the test, adding that if BTC reaches a new all-time high before Q4 2025, he will "completely abandon" the idea that Bitcoin follows predictable four-year market cycles.The comments were made in a social media post on April 23, as Bitcoin traded above $94,000, up more than 10% from when Ki previously called for the end of the bull cycle.“Bitcoin fell 10% after I declared the end of the bull cycle, but now it’s 10% higher than when I made that call,” he noted.Cycle Theory Under PressureKi Young Ju is known for his on-chain, long-term supply-demand models, which typically rely on historical patterns and network activity to forecast market tops and bottoms. However, he now suggests that macroeconomic unpredictability and political events — particularly U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff-driven headlines — are distorting traditional signals.“In a market that reacts to every word of Trump, short-term price movements are more event-driven, which makes traditional cyclical on-chain indicators difficult to use,” he explained.He emphasized that while on-chain data remains a powerful tool, current conditions highlight how even experienced analysts can reach very different interpretations.A New Market Structure?The most striking remark from Ki centered around what happens if Bitcoin breaks above its previous all-time high (~$109,000) before Q4 2025.“If Bitcoin hits a record high before the fourth quarter, I will completely abandon the cycle theory,” he said.“A market without a clear cycle may be completely different from what we have previously known.”He concluded by stating that in such a case, the “die-hard bulls will be right” — and Bitcoin could continue rising without the constraints of historical cycles.Market Outlook: Event-Driven vs. On-ChainKi’s remarks reflect a growing divide between technical, on-chain analysis and the current event-driven, macro-reactive market environment. With Bitcoin climbing in response to geopolitical easing, ETF inflows, and U.S. dollar weakness, some analysts suggest that BTC may be entering a new structural phase, where institutional demand and macro trends outweigh traditional cyclical models.