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#Bitcoinâ May Hit New All-Time High in Two Weeks if Trend Holds, Says CryptoQuant Analyst! đ
#CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlights that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently showing signs of short-term overheating, but the bullish momentum is stronger than ever. Futures are trading at a premium to spot price, with the crucial 7-day moving average above the 30-day moving average â a setup historically indicating strong upward momentum.
Key Highlights:
BTC futures basis remains positive amid cautious futures traders.
Short-term market behavior shows some late-stage overheating signals but price could still break new all-time highs.
Bitcoin is trading close to the $116,000â$117,000 resistance level, with spot demand and ETF inflows providing strong support.
Bitcoinâs trajectory largely depends on upcoming FOMC (Federal Reserve) rate decision.
What to Watch for Next Two Weeks:
Axel Adler Jr. points to three critical signals confirming the bullish case:
Rising BTC price
Rising futures basis
Rising open interest (OI)
If these signals align post-FOMC announcement, Bitcoinâs probability of surging to a new all-time high within two weeks rises significantly â with a 70% chance of at least a gradual uptrend or sideways consolidation in the meantime.
Market Context & Sentiment:
Bitcoinâs short-term overheating phase is somewhat reminiscent of past surges seen in 2024 and early 2025 but appears less intense and of shorter duration.
On-chain metrics such as the Bitcoin Ahr999 Index support a bullish outlook, historically preceding major price rallies.
Institutional interest remains high with ETF inflows and robust spot demand driving price support above key resistance levels.
Market anticipation is high as traders brace for elevated volatility around the FOMC meeting, which could act as a catalyst for Bitcoinâs next leg up.
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