1. Quick overview of the cryptocurrency market.
1. Altcoin market conditions.
BTC's market capitalization rebounded at the support level; if BTC's market capitalization rises, altcoins will fall, but the rebound also faced resistance, expected to oscillate and consolidate for two days.
2. Total market cap of cryptocurrencies.
Short-term in a correction, the daily upward trend has not broken.
3. Liquidation heatmap.
From the weekly liquidation heatmap, it's very likely to spike down to 115K first.
4. Fear and greed index.
Fear and greed index is 67, slightly greedy, not yet at extreme greed.
4. Quick overview of crypto bloggers.
1. Top trader Pigeon.
The pigeon updated a meme last night:
Meaning that I was right again (ETH peaked, altcoins flash crash).
2. Trader Vivian.
Updated at 12:24 AM Beijing time on July 24:
All longs have been closed, and all related spot sections have been updated. Unless I issue another long signal, even if the price returns to previous interest areas, do not open long positions on your own. This includes the price ranges I previously provided for ETH 3500, LTC 110, SOL 188, etc. That's the reason.
Don't play tricks.
(The above image shows BTC market share.)
Updated at 9:09 AM Beijing time on the 24th:
By the way, the plan hasn't changed. I will only do intraday short trades until the target is reached.
Updated at 5:55 PM Beijing time on the 24th:
The fourth wave of the market is currently in progress.
Complete chart with no changes.
All waves are displayed enlarged for reference. When I don't post trades, please be responsible for your own decisions.
The fourth arrow (pointing down) is currently in progress.
(Vivian believes BTC is heading for a downward adjustment, targeting 115K, then reversing upward, targeting 120-122K.)
3. Top trader Joshua.
(Joshua hasn't updated)
4. Top trader Altcoin Sherpa.
Updated tonight:
To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bitcoin entering a 'chop city' mode. Considering how close we are to the previous oscillation zone peak of 112K, I don't quite like the current price trend and would prefer to see a clearer market. I will gradually observe and respond day by day.
$PENGU is a very good coin. I hope the price drops a bit more, then I will start buying from around $0.033 and gradually add positions down to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (corresponding price 0.031779). I believe this coin will rise higher afterwards.
(Sherpa believes BTC is still oscillating without a clear direction, he will buy PENGU if it drops to the 0.03177-0.033 range.)
5. Top trader RunnerXBT.
He updated tonight:
Bullish logic for Solana in the fourth quarter (please note, it's Q4, not Q3!)
Brief version:
ETF is expected to be approved in October, and more corporate treasuries supporting Solana will emerge, along with the seasonal factors of cryptocurrency in Q4 + Q1.
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Detailed analysis:
We have seen what happens when a coin receives strong ETF capital inflows—first BTC, then ETH over the past two months (most of the capital flowed in recently, including SBET, Tom Lee, and other corporate treasuries buying billions of dollars worth of ETH).
Although many people on Crypto Twitter are celebrating victories, the real large buy orders mainly come from institutions that can mobilize huge amounts of capital.
As for SOL, the SEC's final review deadline is October 10, with Fidelity being one of the submitters— a financial giant. Solana has faced many negative narratives in the past few months:
• FTX/Alameda liquidation selling (now basically over).
• The memecoin circle is severely draining (especially the Pump Fun team sold $1 billion worth of SOL and raised another $1.3 billion for their ICO?)
Currently:
• The selling has basically ended.
• Pump Fun's various indicators (trading volume, protocol income, token price) are collapsing, and their junk coins are now far below the ICO price.
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Why emphasize Q4 instead of Q3?
Due to the seasonal adjustments in traditional finance in August, I expect small adjustments in TradFi and BTC in the coming weeks. Personally, I think this is a healthy adjustment (I am still overall bullish myself).
I plan to accumulate in Q4 (approximately from mid-September to early October). Although this is a relatively distant prediction, I will respond based on the actual trend at that time.
Currently, BTC is still at 118K, but altcoins have already plummeted. I hope that if BTC drops a few more percentage points, I can 'buy the panic dip.' A typical bullish market adjustment scenario is: BTC drops 10%, altcoins drop 30% or more.
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So if the market really adjusts, I plan to heavily bet on SOL (or XRP if you prefer) because they are both related to ETFs.
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Recent SOL-related trades:
1. I recently cleared my SOL long positions at 204.
2. Shorting SOL, target closing range at 165–175 (I know my hands are soft, I might take profit at 175).
3. Planning to look for long opportunities in the 150–160 range, gradually increasing positions (depending on the strength of BTC and the relative strength of SOL).
Roughly will choose positions with 4-hour/daily moving average support or some psychological support levels.
(RunnerXBT believes that SOL will take off due to institutional capital inflow, and he plans to heavily invest in SOL by the end of September. Currently, he holds a short position in SOL, planning to take profit at 165-175, and then look to long at 150-160. The 4-hour EMA144 moving average is around 170, and the daily EMA144 is around 160.)
6..Wave Theory by Liu Yudong.
Daily chart as of July 24, 2025.
Since the peak at 123218, it has fallen for 10 consecutive days. This decline is normal and should not exceed July 27, and the end of the adjustment is getting closer. If it does not fall below 118379 by 8 AM tomorrow, it may start to rise. The low probability scenario is that it continues to decline after the 27th, indicating continued adjustment.
(Liu Yudong believes that BTC will end the adjustment in the next few days. If the daily close does not fall below 118379 by 8 AM tomorrow, it will start to rise. There is also a possibility of continued adjustment after the 27th. If it continues to adjust after the 27th, the next wave of rise will be lower than expected.)
V. Summary.
The article title on July 22 said ETH has reached a short-term bottom, BTC is heading towards 115K. The article mentioned that the pigeon and Joshua have closed their ETH long positions; I also closed mine. I had closed about ten altcoin long positions last week; I didn't sell at the peak, but all the selling prices are much higher than now. It's very important to be fast in the crypto space; I'd rather sell early than hold the bag.
Vivian and Liu Yudong have always believed that BTC needs to drop to 115K, but it's too tough to drop, fluctuating between 117-120K. Both BTC and ETH should have dropped significantly but haven't. It’s also possible that a second wave of rise starts directly from here. There’s no good way around this; either take a 1/5 position as a starter or wait for a big drop to catch a good entry for longs. If it doesn’t drop, then chase the rise or buy slower-starting coins.
Next time I won't buy random coins; I will stick to the coins with ETF narratives (e.g., $BTC , $ETH , XRP, SOL, ADA, SUI, LINK, AVAX, LTC, DOT). Also, ONDO and ENA, TRX seem to have similar narratives.
I plan to heavily invest in SOL next time; I've previously mentioned the entry points for longs.
There might be downward spikes in the next few days, everyone can place orders before sleeping, splitting into more than 3 orders, and the prices can be set a bit lower; if filled, it’s profit, and if not, there’s no loss.
Someone said in the comments yesterday:
I only saw this comment last night, and I noticed DOGE dropped from 0.28 to 0.24. Taking profit the day before was fine; it’s important to adjust your mindset and reduce FOMO emotions. Selling a bit early is normal, not being able to buy at the bottom is also normal; pursuing the absolute bottom and peak is unrealistic.
If this guy really operated according to my article's ideas, I said on June 23 that if you don't buy DOGE at 0.15, what are you waiting for? He entered at 0.15 and sold at 0.28, making an 86% profit without leverage. What more could you want?
Additionally, I want to clarify that once you open a trade, the responsibility is on you. I only provide information; what assets to operate, how to operate, the choice is up to you. Even if you participate in platform copy trading, the responsibility is still yours because you have the choice not to copy trades and the right to stop and exit at any time. Choosing to copy someone else's actions is also a subjective choice. As for the results of the trades, losses are your own bad luck, profits are your own success; it has little to do with me, as I provide the same information. There are members in the group who made 10 times their investment and others who have lost everything.
Finally, the KCGI battle of a certain institution started today. There are many tasks and rewards, and the rewards are substantial. Everyone can explore from the homepage. I plan to transfer some USDT from other platforms, do more short-term trading to refresh the data and receive airdrop rewards.
Striving to be number one, our team ranked 5th in the Chinese division with 112 members, supported by big players with over ten million U trading volume in the group. Winning is inevitable; it’s just a matter of how much.
Statement:
The above information is for reference only and is not trading advice. The crypto space is high risk; participation requires caution.
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