Message Front
The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is as high as 97.4%.
Positive news from US-EU trade negotiations, planning to reach a 15% tariff agreement.
The White House has released a new round of AI action plans to strengthen America's dominant position in the artificial intelligence field.
Trump stated that he may impose 15%–50% simple tariffs on multiple countries.
Technical Analysis
BTC:
The daily line continues to oscillate within the upward channel, with a short-term range of 116K–120K. Recently, the K-line has shown a tug-of-war trend between bulls and bears, accompanied by a slight decrease in trading volume, indicating that the main force is in the trial control phase.
Currently, MA7 and MA14 overlap, with limited adjustment space, and the market is about to welcome a clear direction. Key points of concern: if a mid-strong or upper shadow bearish line appears with volume, it will determine the breakthrough direction.
The 4-hour chart shows that the price rebounded after three dips to MA90, with a short-term bias towards strength.
Operational suggestion: 119.5K–120.5K as upper pressure, 117.5K–116.5K as support.
ETH:
The daily line shows a high-level "increased volume stagnation + bearish line adjustment" structure, with short-term risks of a pullback after a rally. Yesterday, it fell over 200 points, and trading volume increased significantly, indicating selling pressure. After breaking below the 7-day moving average, it rebounded today but still needs to be cautious of a pullback during the US session.
The 4-hour chart overall tends to oscillate downwards, currently in a rebound phase, but there is still room for a pullback in the Asian session.
Operational suggestion: Pay attention to the upper range of 3680–3720, and defend the support level of 3580–3540.
Altcoin Strategy
From the end of this month to the beginning of next month, pay attention to the selling pressure risk brought about by the cliff-like unlocking.
Net inflow from multiple mainstream exchanges has increased, indicating that altcoin funds are retreating, possibly with selling intentions.
On-chain data and the number of interactive wallets are declining, heat is weakening, especially for recent large gainers showing a "buy then sell" trend, most of these users are arbitrage accounts, not real users.
Current suggestion is to maintain a cash position and observe, resisting the impulse to enter blindly. If there are no clear opportunities, it is better to remain in cash than to force trades just for the sake of making money, which should be the ultimate goal.
