懒兰懒

午后行情分析与交易策略
四小时级别： 大阳线拉升后进入“碎阳”调整格局，显示多头动能暂时衰竭。虽然价格企稳，但上影线表明上方抛压沉重，且缩量上行预示当前价格水平的买盘兴趣减弱，后续上涨延续性存疑。
小时级别： 行情波动率收窄，构成小型整理形态。多项技术指标显示多头动能已充分释放，价格有向区间下轨甚至破位回撤的技术需求。
综合结论： 市场短期多头趋势暂停，面临技术性回撤修正风险，操作上可谨慎尝试短空。
具体交易计划：
大饼
空单入场区间： 116,000 - 116,400
目标止盈位： 115,000 附近
防守止损： 建议设置在116,800或117,200 上方
二饼
空单入场区间： 4,740 - 4,770
目标止盈位： 4,650 USDT附近
防守止损： 建议设置在4,800或4,830 上方
关键提醒与风控：
轻仓试探： 当前为调整行情中的短线机会，务必轻仓操作，严格控制单笔交易风险。
观察确认： 入场后密切关注回撤力度。若价格未能有效下破支撑而是迅速收复失地，应考虑提前离场。
严格执行： 务必设置止损，防止行情突发逆转导致大幅亏损。
免责声明： 以上仅为基于当前市场结构的技术分析，不构成任何投资建议。数字货币波动剧烈，请您理性决策，做好风险控制。
#Web3 #BTC

The current market is nearing the last defense line for bulls, but the situation remains severe! The spot premium index has fallen into negative territory for the first time, with USD funds continuing to flow out, and the market is showing signs of a comprehensive retreat! Even ETF data indicates capital outflow, and this downward trend is simply unsettling...
If key support is lost, the next target may look down to 110000 or even 108000! Everyone must be vigilant about risks and manage their positions well!
#Web3 #BTC

As I mentioned in yesterday's communication, the market has shown signs of short-term overselling and technical divergence, reminding us to be cautious of the possibility of a 'false drop'. Last night, market sentiment improved, and Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound, with a volatility range exceeding 2400 points.
However, it is essential to recognize that the high volatility of the crypto market implies high risk. Every increase comes with the possibility of a pullback, and past performance cannot guarantee future results.
For the current market, the recommendations are:
For those holding positions: Consider setting stop-loss and take-profit orders to protect profits and manage risks effectively.
For observers: Do not blindly chase highs. Market opportunities always exist; it is advised to make careful decisions after thorough research and assessment of personal risk tolerance. The primary principle of investment is to preserve the principal.
#Web3 #BTC

Asset Support Level Resistance Level Short-term Trend Key Observation Points
BTC 112,300 - 113,000 117,500 - 118,600 Weak Fluctuation Can it stabilize at 115,000 and break through 117,500
ETH 4,000 - 4,100 4,300 - 4,380 Waiting for Direction 4,300 is a key psychological level, a breakthrough would look at 4,450
Operational Suggestions
The idea of buying on dips you mentioned is a strategy many investors adopt in a fluctuating market, but it is essential to control risk:
Bitcoin:
Entry Reference: The area you mentioned around 112,700-113,200 is a potential support zone.
Target Price: In the short term, you can initially look at around 115,000. If it can break through and stabilize at 117,500, it may further explore 119,500-120,000.
Risk Control: If the price falls below important support levels such as 112,300 or 111,900, be wary of further retracement risks.
Ethereum:
Entry Reference: The range around 4,100-4,140 that you are focusing on is an important support zone mentioned by many analysts.
Target Price: The primary short-term target is 4,300 USD. If it can strongly break through resistance levels of 4,380 or 4,450, it may open up greater upside potential.
Risk Control: If it effectively falls below the 4,000 USD level, it may test deeper support.
Current Market Bullish and Bearish Views
There are differing opinions in the current market regarding future trends:
Optimistic View: Believes that the current situation is a healthy correction, with a long-term bullish outlook. For example, some analysts predict that if ETH can test the 4,000 to 4,100 USD range and rebound strongly, it will be a typical bullish signal, potentially looking at 5,000 USD or higher in the long term; BTC also has views looking at 130,000-140,000 USD, and even 180,000-200,000 USD in the longer term.
Cautious View: Points out short-term risks. For instance, some analyses suggest that 4,300 USD for ETH is not a solid support and should be wary of a retracement; if BTC loses key support, it may face further retracement risks.
#Web3

8.19 Morning Quick Review Key Position Precision Strike
Second Pie Sniping Plan
First Defense Line: 4160-70 Area
Operational Discipline: Enter only on right-side breakout pullback; stop loss immediately if the entry point is breached
Gold Pit Level: Around 4080
Two Types of Strategies:
Aggressive: Place orders in batches on the left side of 4080
Conservative: Wait for a 15 min bullish candle to engulf and then follow up on the right side
Core Reminder: If the daily close is below 4150, it will trigger a monthly level pullback to 3880!
Support Route Map: 4160 → 4075 → 4007
Large Pie Institutional Level Liquidity Distribution
Long-Short Lifeline: 114500
Bullish Signal: Hourly chart stabilizes above 116700
Crash Scenario: If 114000 is breached → 112000 Ambush Zone
Intraday Long-Short Grid
Support Zone: 11.4w → 11.34w → 11.2w
Resistance Zone: 11.56w → 11.64w → 11.83-11.92w
#Web3

Current Trend:
Second-tier coins continue to decline, breaking through the key support level of 4200, with short-term bears in control.
Four years ago, ETH first broke through 4100, is a historic opportunity appearing again?
Buying Plan:
Buying Range: 4120-4180
Target: Rebound to 4500+
Stop Loss: Strict stop loss below 4050
High Risk-Reward Strategy:
30WU staggered layout
Win → Relax for ten years, wait for the next bull market.
Lose → Wait another four years, ETH will eventually return.
Risk Warning:
The overall trend is still bearish, buying at the bottom requires caution.
Position management is key, avoid all-in.
Black swan events may intensify volatility.
#Web3

#Range-bound oscillation continues, continue to short at high rebound positions! 8.7 BTC and ETH precise strategies
Market Express
Trump administration wields tariff stick again, Brazil and India are hit in succession, and risk aversion in the global market is heating up! However, cryptocurrencies are still caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. After two waves of short orders with small profit stops yesterday, the price surged at midnight but failed to break through the key pressure. Now the market has returned to the oscillating box. Today, focus on the initial jobless claims data in the evening, which may detonate a short-term breakthrough!
Technical Analysis
BTC
The daily line alternates between yin and yang, with equal lengths of entity and shadow lines, and the battle between bulls and bears is heating up!
Resistance: 115600→116000→117000 →118900→119500
Support: 113300→112600→111800→110000 mark
ETH
The 4-hour chart shows a shrinking rebound, and the 3680-3730 area has become the focus of the battle between bulls and bears!
Resistance: 3700→3730→3760
Support: 3600→3550→3500
Today's Practical Strategy
BTC
Short orders:
Aggressive: Directly short at 115000-115500, stop loss at 116500, target 114000→113300→112600!
Stable: Add short positions near 116000, stop loss as above, look down to 112000 break!
Long orders:
Light position long at 112000-112500, stop loss at 111000, target 113500→114500
ETH
Short orders:
Aggressive: Short at 3680-3700, stop loss at 3760, target 3600→3550!
Stable: Short near 3730, stop loss remains unchanged, look down to 3500 mark!
Long orders:
Short long at 3550-3570, stop loss at 3510, target 3650→3680
Key Reminders
The current market is mainly oscillating, do not chase the rise and kill the fall! Sell high and buy low at pressure support positions, and follow up after the break.
The direction of the large level is confirmed after BTC breaks through 116000/ETH 3760 or BTC falls below 111800/ETH 3500!
Action Guide: Rebound is a short order opportunity, a sharp drop can fight short long, strictly bring loss! #Web3

Market Hotspot Dispatch
The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on Brazil and India, global risk aversion sentiment is rising, but the cryptocurrency market has yet to break out of its oscillation pattern! Yesterday, two waves of short positions took small profits, and after a midnight surge, the pullback showed weakness. Currently, the focus remains on short positions, be cautious of tonight's **initial jobless claims data triggering market movements!
BTC Technical Analysis
Daily chart shows alternating bullish and bearish patterns, with intense long and short battles, difficult to break the range without volume!
Key Resistance: 115600, 116000, 117000, 118900, 119500
Key Support: 113300, 112600, 111800, 111200, 110000
Trading Strategy
Short Positions
Aggressive: Short at 115000-115500, stop loss at 116500, targets at 114000→113300→112600
Conservative: Short near 116000, stop loss at 116500, targets as above for swing profits!
Long Positions
Initially long at 112000-112500, stop loss at 111000, targets at 113500→114000
ETH Technical Analysis
Correlating with BTC's oscillation, 3680-3730 shows dense resistance, while 3550 serves as the bullish defense line!
Key Resistance: 3680, 3700, 3730, 3760
Key Support: 3600, 3570, 3540, 3500
Trading Strategy
Short Positions
Aggressive: Short at 3680-3700, stop loss at 3760, targets at 3600→3570→3540
Conservative: Short near 3730, stop loss at 3760, targets move down synchronously!
Long Positions
Buy on pullback at 3550-3570, stop loss at 3510, targets at 3630→3680
#Web3

8.7 Market Quick Report: Bitcoin and Ethereum fluctuations continue, primarily short!
Bitcoin Strategy
Short Position: Short in batches at 115000-116000, with a stop loss at 116500, target 114000-112600!
Long Position: Short-term long at 112000-112500, with a stop loss at 111000, target 113500+!
Ethereum Strategy
Short Position: Short in batches at 3680-3730, with a stop loss at 3760, target 3550-3500!
Long Position: Short-term long at 3550-3570, with a stop loss at 3510, target 3650+!
Key Points: The range has not been broken, sell high and buy low! Data alert for market changes, keep your stop losses in place!
#Web3

Analysis of the current ETH market and content operation strategy. Based on your needs, I have organized the following professional suggestions:
Key Technical Judgments
1. Bollinger Band Indicator Signals
The current daily Bollinger Band opening rate is 28%
The slope of the middle line remains in a strong zone at 55 degrees
Caution: When the closing price falls below the dynamic middle line for three consecutive candles
Multi-factor Verification System Suggestions
Volume Dimension: The current rise is accompanied by an average of 1.5 times the volume, which is healthy
MACD Dual Line: DIF maintains a distance of 38 points above the 0 axis
Fibonacci Key Levels: After breaking the previous high, the next resistance is at the 382 extension
Three-dimensional Verification Framework
On-chain Data: Net outflow from exchanges week-on-week +40%
Derivative Indicators: Perpetual contract funding rate 0.01%/8h
Whale Movements: The top 100 addresses increased their holdings by 2.1% in the past 7 days
Operational Strategy Suggestions
"Middle Line Defensive Tactics: When the 4H closing price < middle line and opening rate < 10%, consider partial profit-taking"
#Web3

Breaking! Wisconsin, USA Proposes Mandatory Full KYC for Bitcoin ATMs
Key Points of New Bill SB386:
Mandatory Identification: Photo ID required for each transaction
Transaction Limits: Single/Daily limit of $1000
Data Collection: Operators must store user personal information
Impact Analysis:
Privacy Controversy: Undermines the anonymity of Bitcoin ATMs, raising concerns in the community
Compliance Costs: Operators may face higher costs, some may exit the market
Regulatory Trends: Global tightening of cryptocurrency ATM regulations, Wisconsin may become a model for the US
#Web3

Technical Analysis
Moving Average Support: MA7, MA25, MA99 are in a bullish arrangement, the short-term trend remains strong! But be cautious, if it quickly falls below MA7, it may trigger a waterfall decline!
Danger Signals: Volume shrinks after new highs, and upward momentum is insufficient! If it cannot break through with volume, the risk of a pullback increases!
K-line Patterns: No obvious top signals have appeared yet, but high-level fluctuations indicate intensified long and short battles!
Market Sentiment and Funds
Capital Flow: Is large capital continuously flowing in? Signs of institutional reductions? On-chain data needs close monitoring!
News: ETF progress, regulatory dynamics, hacking incidents, etc., could trigger severe volatility!
Bitcoin Correlation: If BTC turns down, ETH is likely to follow!
Operational Suggestions
Bullish: Hold if MA7 is maintained, decisively reduce positions if it breaks!
Bearish: If it breaks down below 4080 with volume, the short-term trend may reverse!
High-Risk Warning: High-leverage players must set stop-losses! Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; do not blindly chase highs and sell lows!
Summary: Although ETH has reached a new high, the divergence between volume and price + increased market uncertainty raises the risk of a pullback! Ensure good risk control to avoid liquidation!

8.7 Ethereum Market Overview
ETF Performance:
Hong Kong Stock ChinaAMC Ether ETF slightly up 0.06%;
US Stock Grayscale Ethereum ETF up 3.24%.
Market Dynamics:
In July, stimulated by US crypto legislation, Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $2.27 billion in a single day, with Ethereum rising 21.7% for the week, briefly surpassing $3600.
On August 2, risk aversion caused prices to drop over 5%, with $700 million liquidated across the network in 24 hours, affecting 160,000 people.
Key Factors:
Ethereum 2.0 upgrade Layer 2 expansion driving demand;
Institutional accumulation;
Bitcoin correlation effect Regulatory uncertainty in various countries.
Technical Analysis: Pay attention to key support/resistance levels, breakout or pullback may increase.
#Web3

Current Market Analysis: 119K Stalemate, 120K Becomes Key Watershed
Price Dynamics: BTC is currently oscillating around 119,000, having attempted multiple times to test the resistance at 119,800–120,000 without success, indicating heavy selling pressure above.
Technical Structure:
4H Level: Wave shape downtrend, high points gradually declining, three consecutive bullish candles rebounding but with insufficient volume, raising doubts about the sustainability of the upward movement.
1H Level: Range oscillation between 118,000–119,500, waiting for guidance from the evening U.S. stock market opening.
Bullish and Bearish Sentiment:
Bulls: Relying on support at 117,500–118,000, expecting a breakthrough at 120K to trigger short liquidations.
Bears: Accumulating sell orders at 119,800–120,000, with institutions recently reducing holdings putting pressure on the market.
Operational Strategy: Short high, buy low, closely monitor key levels
Short Position Opportunities:
Entry: Gradually open short positions at 119,500–119,800, stop loss at 120,400.
Target: 118,200→117,500.
Long Position Opportunities:
Entry: Light long positions after stabilization at 117,500–118,000, stop loss at 116,800.
Target: 119,000–119,500.
#Web3 #BTC

A new week, Bitcoin strongly breaks through 119500, ETH simultaneously sets a new bull market high! We accurately positioned long orders at 115055, and then the market violently surged by 4500 points, fans who followed directly made a profit of over 3000 dollars! Current advice is to take profits in batches, securing gains!
Key analysis:
BTC perfectly hunted liquidity below 115000 last week and strongly broke through the trend line, confirming the bullish pattern!
The weekly chart closed with a small bullish candle, testing high and low points around the previous week, forming a continuation pattern for the upward trend, extending the bull market!
The target is set at 130600, trend traders should continue to hold steady, and any pullbacks present opportunities to add positions!
#Web3 #BTC

7.26 Pancake Two Pancake Early Market Sniping Plan: Capture the Main Uptrend After a Pullback!
BTC/USDT Key Battle
Current Situation
Strongly broke through resistance at 116,000 in the early morning, reaching a high of 117,300, perfectly executing our 16,080 long strategy.
4-hour chart: MACD golden cross initially appearing, but RSI is overbought, caution against short-term pullbacks.
Core Logic: Remaining selling pressure from Galaxy Digital has been absorbed by the market, Binance BTC open interest increased by 7.2% in 24H, large funds are still deploying.
Precise Strategy
Entry Range: 116,800-117,200
Stop Loss: 115,800
Target: 119,000 → After breaking through, look at 121,500
ETH/USDT Powering Up to Breakthrough
Market Contradictions
Bullish: ETH spot ETF capital inflow has exceeded BTC for 3 consecutive days, Binance ETH contract open interest +15%.
Bearish: 4-hour bearish alignment, 3720 forming a short-term pressure wall.
Excellent Buy Points
Long Position Ambush Area: 3690-3715
Defense Level: 3650
Target: 3800 → After breaking through, look at 3950
#web3

How to deal with the roller coaster market in the crypto world? 3 tips for guaranteed profit without panic!
Divide your position into 3 parts: don't chase the rise, buy more when it drops to the right level, and keep enough bullets to turn things around!
Set stop-loss and take-profit in advance: cut losses decisively at 5%-8% drop, take profit automatically at 10%-20% rise, don't hesitate!
Only take advantage of the 'middle segment': don't guess peaks and troughs, buy and sell around the moving average, make a profit and run!
Mindset secret: look at the market less, don't follow the crowd, there are always opportunities in the market, capital is the most important!
#币圈

Message Front
The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is as high as 97.4%.
Positive news from US-EU trade negotiations, planning to reach a 15% tariff agreement.
The White House has released a new round of AI action plans to strengthen America's dominant position in the artificial intelligence field.
Trump stated that he may impose 15%–50% simple tariffs on multiple countries.
Technical Analysis
BTC:
The daily line continues to oscillate within the upward channel, with a short-term range of 116K–120K. Recently, the K-line has shown a tug-of-war trend between bulls and bears, accompanied by a slight decrease in trading volume, indicating that the main force is in the trial control phase.
Currently, MA7 and MA14 overlap, with limited adjustment space, and the market is about to welcome a clear direction. Key points of concern: if a mid-strong or upper shadow bearish line appears with volume, it will determine the breakthrough direction.
The 4-hour chart shows that the price rebounded after three dips to MA90, with a short-term bias towards strength.
Operational suggestion: 119.5K–120.5K as upper pressure, 117.5K–116.5K as support.
ETH:
The daily line shows a high-level "increased volume stagnation + bearish line adjustment" structure, with short-term risks of a pullback after a rally. Yesterday, it fell over 200 points, and trading volume increased significantly, indicating selling pressure. After breaking below the 7-day moving average, it rebounded today but still needs to be cautious of a pullback during the US session.
The 4-hour chart overall tends to oscillate downwards, currently in a rebound phase, but there is still room for a pullback in the Asian session.
Operational suggestion: Pay attention to the upper range of 3680–3720, and defend the support level of 3580–3540.
Altcoin Strategy
From the end of this month to the beginning of next month, pay attention to the selling pressure risk brought about by the cliff-like unlocking.
Net inflow from multiple mainstream exchanges has increased, indicating that altcoin funds are retreating, possibly with selling intentions.
On-chain data and the number of interactive wallets are declining, heat is weakening, especially for recent large gainers showing a "buy then sell" trend, most of these users are arbitrage accounts, not real users.
Current suggestion is to maintain a cash position and observe, resisting the impulse to enter blindly. If there are no clear opportunities, it is better to remain in cash than to force trades just for the sake of making money, which should be the ultimate goal.
#BTC #ETH

Current price 119400, directly monitor! 1-hour "death pin" confirmed
Rebound to the 119800-120200 pressure zone + 4-hour MACD top divergence
Strict stop loss above 120500, target position 117800→116100
Long ambush area
Key watershed: Breakthrough and stabilize above 120000 for 2 hours
Support level stabilizing at 118600
Conservatives place orders for breakout at 120100 to chase long, stop loss at 119300
Core market logic
Long-short lifeline: 120000 is the bull-bear divide, the 11.6-12W box has oscillated for 87 hours
On-chain data shows: There are 23,000 BTC sell orders above 120,000
After a surge of 4000 points, RSI overbought correction demand is strong
Emergency alert
Current volatility index has surged by 35%, be vigilant for pinning during the Asian session! It is recommended to use "breakout order + OCO strategy" for two-way layout, refuse to hold positions!
#Web3