ETH reaches a short-term peak, BTC drops to 115K — Latest views and analysis from global top traders on July 22, 2025.

1. Crypto Blogger Express

1. Top Trader Pigeon

Pigeon updated this morning until noon:

The pump has been consolidating in the 0.004 range for too long without rising, and my trading logic has been negated. I have already cut this position and prepared to move on. Now is not the time to stubbornly hold onto those stagnant coins.

I have exited most of my (ETH) long positions from here — from 2500 to 3800, it's already the best wave of market I could ask for in two weeks.

I believe the "easy part" of this trade has ended; if I want to continue holding, I must be mentally prepared to break through historical highs.

I have never been good at continuing to chase the long position during the momentum phase, so at this stage I will pass the baton to those who are better at it. From the perspective of positions, this wave of market has shifted from "insufficient holdings" to "overfilled holdings", and in the past few days, institutional buyers' appetite has clearly increased.

ETH/BTC has also reached my mid-cycle target of 0.03; everything has almost executed as expected, so I choose to lock in profits now and prepare for the next trading opportunity.

I suspect there may be a liquidation pullback in the next few days, and that may present new entry opportunities.

As always, this is not investment advice (NFA).

(The pigeon believed in early July that ETH would rise, and now he has basically taken profits; today he also cut his pump position. The pigeon believes that a flash crash may occur in the next few days, rapidly dropping and killing long leveraged positions.)

2. Trader Vivian

Updated at 3:16 AM Beijing time on July 22:

If the situation remains the same at the 4 PM close, that will be a full green light signal for shorts.

It will stagnate at 116666, while altcoins drop, and Bitcoin remains flat or slightly bearish until just below 115K. Expected to fluctuate between 115K and 120K on Wednesday night.

Updated at 4:02 PM Beijing time on the 22nd:

Updated at 4 PM close: completely closed below this trading range, which is a thorough weakness signal.

117777 is the key point of this round of trading; if it falls, it is considered losing that range. Since the close is bearish, the price may continue to drop slightly, then retest the 117777 value area low, likely starting to drop from the Asian session.

If the daily closes below 117000, then the London opening is an opportunity to enter short. However, market sentiment remains bearish until tomorrow evening.

Updated at 8:01 AM Beijing time on the 22nd:

Daily close update:

Daily close below TGIF (118200) = weakness, expected to drop during the Asian session. Target in the range of 116-116666.

Selling pressure appeared at 118272, so there might be a rise to that position between the London opening and New York opening.

After retracing to this position, altcoins will drop harder and then fall towards 115k. A lower shadow line may appear.

The summary is as follows:

Asian market — go short, target the 116k area.

London to New York market — rising to the 118.5k range, but lacks trading value

New York opening — short, target the 115k area.

Do not touch any long positions unless I clearly post that you can go long; even if some coins reach our target positions, I still insist not to act.

Updated at 9:17 AM Beijing time on the 22nd:

Liquidate your short positions, are you keeping up? Did you see it? Confirm it.

If you want to go long, that’s your choice; you understand what I mean, right?

As long as you are willing to take responsibility and set tight stop losses, it’s fine.

I will short again when the London or New York market opens.

Good night~

No one can match a mother's level of "pulling out game". This type of trend is called inducement; it stimulates you emotionally to perform a certain action, and then they reverse and do the opposite. This is how they harvest liquidity.

Updated at 9:48 PM Beijing time on the 22nd:

Some coins may reach our expected entry points, or even lower. I will arrange long entry points for Tier 1 and Tier 2 channels tomorrow. Do not go long until I post.

Liquidation wicks may dip below key support levels, and you could get wrecked by the wicks. 115 is a position to go long, but the wicks may dip below 115, so I will wait for the London session to go long.

The first entry point is from 2-5 AM, and the second entry point is from 9-10 AM.

You thought it wouldn't crash, right?

When I say "close shorts", you need to close all short positions.

Highly likely to start crashing late at night tonight.

(Vivian updated this morning saying BTC will drop to 116K during Asian trading hours (starting at 8 AM), which is about to happen; she also mentioned that the rebound to 118.5K during London trading hours (starting at 4 PM) has also come true; she believes BTC will drop from 118.5K to 115K, so she opened a short position at 4 PM Beijing time.)

Tonight at 10 PM, it indeed crashed; she updated that it will drop to 115K during the daytime tomorrow in Beijing, and she will take the lead to go long.)

3. Top Trader Joshua

Updated this afternoon:

Ethereum seems to have also shown short-term peak signals.

(Joshua believes ETH is reaching a short-term peak and will adjust for a while, with a picture mocking Trump's eldest son calling for more ETH on February 3.)

4. Top Trader Altcoin Sherpa

Updated at noon Beijing time today:

Current active positions held:

• Fartcoin perpetual long position

• $BNB

Current inactive positions:

$BTC

• Fartcoin

Cryptocurrencies I want to buy:

• $ETH

• $PENGU

• $ENA

• $SOL

Currently more inclined to position large-cap coins during corrections.

In my view:

• If you went long from a very low position — continue to hold most of your position

• If you have recently gone long — it’s hard to judge; toss a coin to decide.

• If you are currently flat — you might want to wait for clearer signals, or enter with a small position to reserve space for increasing your position.

• If you are shorting — then you are a gay (just joking)

One mistake I made in the past was being too attached to certain trading ideas and unable to decisively cut losses. For example, with $PUMP, I think this coin is better suited to be bought during an uptrend rather than blindly bottom-fishing during a downtrend. Its volatility is too large; although it does have some attention, I think it needs to experience an extreme sell-off to wash out everyone before a good opportunity arises.

I won't touch this coin for now; if it rises by 50% later, I'd be happy to get in then. Until then, I will just watch from the sidelines.

(Sherpa plans to trade mainstream altcoins with large market caps next; he also cut his pump position today, believing that such coins are better to chase the rise rather than bottom-fish.)

5. Trader Mockingbird

The summer of DAT (Digital Asset Treasury) in 2025: the fate flywheel.

Since April 2025, the rise of the DAT track can be described as a leap, with companies like Metaplanet, SBET, and BTBT leading the charge, with stock prices surging over 100% within a month.

The summer of DAT in 2025 = the summer of DeFi in 2021.

It reminds people of DeFi Summer. Back then, assets like AAVE, CRV, and YFI were seen as "junk coins" in a zero-cost mining and selling cycle, yet ultimately created wealth for countless individuals. We were all wondering: who is buying these coins?

As the market grows, we start to view these coins as assets driven by fundamentals, even predicting that TradFi will value them like stocks. For a while, we even believed DeFi could challenge Visa and Mastercard. Price (or time) really can change perception.

________________________________________

Doubts about DAT: familiar "ridiculousness"

Looking back, many ideas from that time now sound somewhat naive. Now, DAT is also at a similar stage, looking "too ridiculous." I have discussed with some smart people, and their views are:

This market is too crazy now; it won't last a month.

The bursting of the bubble will trigger a catastrophic collapse, and most companies may go bankrupt.

Who would buy this kind of "national treasury stock" like SBET? No one is really using ETH!

I used to hold a similar view. But we all know that ridiculous trends often last longer than you think.

________________________________________

The first truly "large flywheel" since DeFi Summer.

DAT is the first truly capital-inflowing, structurally closed-loop, and accepted by traditional finance flywheel we have seen in this cycle.

Reviewing the past few waves:

• MEME season, AI season, ultimately just emotional speculation. Fast in and out within three months.

• As I mentioned in my pinned post, we are still playing the old trick of attention arbitrage:

o TikTok became popular with Moodeng → launched MEME coins → buy low sell high

o NVIDIA surges → follows TAO and GRASS → buy low sell high

o AI agent concept → Twitter launches robots + tokens → buy low sell high

Although these scripts are profitable, they always lack sustainability and depth, and eventually, the market grows weary of them. That’s why so many crypto natives have already left.

________________________________________

The logic of the DAT flywheel: TradFi takes over, the closed loop is established.

The difference with DAT is that it forms a capital-tiered participation + self-reinforcing narrative flywheel:

1. Public companies buy tokens

2. Token price increases

3. Company net asset value declines (attracting more arbitrage)

4. Stock price increases

5. The company cashes out stocks through the market or CB

6. The company buys more tokens.

This is what "TradFi is helping us pump".

Billions of dollars flowing from the stock market into crypto is unimaginable during the period from 2022 to 2024 when "US stocks rise while crypto falls."

________________________________________

Outlook: The next batch of coins that TradFi hasn't bought yet may be the next hot spot.

I cannot determine how long this game can last, but one thing is certain: those coins that have not yet been bought by public companies may be the next targets to be pushed up.

Many of the current doubts may be the big opportunities of the future.

Embrace change, keep an open mind, and never be an old-fashioned person who looks down on trends.

Cheers, welcome to the summer of DAT in 2025.

(Mockingbird compares this year's digital asset reserve market with the 2021 DeFi bull market, believing the next batch of coins that traditional financial institutions will buy will be the next trend.)

6. Wave Theory by Liu Yudong

July 22, 2025, daily chart.

Since peaking at 123218, there have been three adjustments, falling for 9 consecutive days. This adjustment may be a platform shape or a union shape, with support between 115657-113872. This drop should not exceed July 27; if it continues to drop after the 27th, it would be bad; find the adjustment endpoint and then rush towards 132669.

(Liu Yudong's viewpoint remains unchanged, still believes BTC is in adjustment, to bottom out before the 27th, with the bottom between 115657-113872, and after adjustment, rush towards 132669.)

5. Summary

Today, Vivian was still very impressive; she predicted this morning that BTC would first drop to 116K and then rise to 118.5K, but she was off by 1000 points on the top prediction, leading to an early short position, which is likely just about to break even now. Vivian believes it will drop to 115K, which is similar to Liu Yudong's viewpoint.

The pigeon cashed out early and took profits from the ETH long position built at the beginning of the month; Joshua believes ETH is reaching a short-term peak and all believe ETH will correct.

Mockingbird reminds to pay attention to the DAT hot spot, looking for the next coin that traditional financial institutions will buy, and layout in advance.

I personally closed my SOL long position tonight, cut my PUMP and BGB; PUMP hit my breakeven loss last night; I placed an order before sleeping and woke up to find the sky had fallen. Overnight, I didn't have a good outlook on this coin; everyone was selling, losing 10%.

Currently, I only have a small losing position in launchcion left, I’m leaving it alone; if I had woken up earlier this morning, these two long positions wouldn't have lost money. I need to adjust my schedule next time.

From the 4H chart, ETH indeed seems to be about to turn, but it is uncertain where it will drop to; it may also consolidate sideways; however, long positions that have already profited should take profits first and wait for new entry opportunities.

Statement:

The above information is for reference only, not trading advice; the crypto space is high-risk, participation requires caution.

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