Powell 'opens his mouth' tonight! On the eve of the crypto storm, three tips to help you seize turning point opportunities
Brothers, tonight is destined to be sleepless!
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at 2 AM on July 22 in UTC+8, and global financial markets are holding their breath. As a veteran in the crypto world, Ailes must highlight key points in advance—this Fed leader's words once caused Bitcoin to swing 6% in a day, with Ethereum spiking over 1,000 points! But don't panic; after reading this, you will understand how to respond better than 90% of retail investors.
Why can Powell's speech stir the crypto world?
A review of history makes it clear:
- The power of 'mouth cannon' is astonishing: In April this year, Powell's statement that "the Fed absolutely will not touch Bitcoin" caused an immediate 5% drop in Bitcoin, directly breaching the $100,000 level; however, in May he changed his tune to "banks can provide compliance services to crypto clients," and the coin price quickly rebounded to $84,000. The core lies in leveraging the expectation gap; bad news often turns into good news.
- Interest rate policy is key: In March, he hinted at "possible rate cuts," leading institutional funds to flood into Bitcoin ETFs, buying 130,000 BTC in a single week; if rate hike signals are released, Ethereum dropped below the $3,700 support level. The logic is straightforward: when liquidity increases, coin prices rise; when liquidity is withdrawn, coin prices fall.
Three key points to watch tonight
1. Interest rate direction
- If he hints at rate cuts (40% probability): Institutions have prepared ammunition, with MicroStrategy having $4.2 billion waiting to buy the dip, and BlackRock's ETF seeing $1.18 billion inflow in a single day. In terms of operations, if Bitcoin stabilizes above $110,000, it can increase positions, with a target of the previous high at $130,000.
- If he insists on rate hikes (30% probability): Short-term corrections need not panic; $107,320 is a key support level. On-chain whales have not sold for three months, making the probability of a drop very low. You can place a limit order at $107,500 to wait for opportunities.
2. Relaxation of bank crypto operations
After Powell eased his stance in May, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have quietly laid out plans for crypto custody. If he gives the green light tonight, compliant entities like Coinbase and Grayscale will directly benefit. Watch for unusual movements in $COIN stock price before the US market opens as a signal.
3. Stablecoin regulatory details
Powell is currently advocating for (stablecoin legislation), requiring "100% reserves + real-time auditing." If the details are implemented, unregulated stablecoins (especially algorithmic ones) will come under pressure, while compliant coins like USDC and DAI are expected to benefit, which should be prioritized for reallocation.
Survival guide
- Position management: Hold 50% as a long-term base, enter in batches with 30% of funds in the $107,000-$110,000 range, and keep 20% in USDT to respond to panic selling.
- Leverage taboo: Ensure zero leverage before the speech; when the liquidation amount exceeds $100 million, the probability of success for a counter position is relatively high (last week, at a high point of $120,000, $744 million in leveraged funds were liquidated).
- Layout direction: Focus on Bitcoin spot ETFs favored by institutions (IBIT), leading Ethereum staking (LIDO), and policy-immune BTC halving concept mining companies (RIOT), as well as compliant stablecoins (USDC); stay away from high-leverage MEME coins and exchange platform tokens.
Crises often come with wealth reshuffling; Powell's speech is not the end, but a detector for opportunities. Remember: bad news often turns into good news (after the crash in April, it rose by 30%); the institutional cost line (like MicroStrategy's holding cost of $89,000) is the safety margin for retail investors. Only invest spare money to sleep well and truly make a profit.
