The Ethereum trading strategy recommendation for July 22 is as follows:
1. Long Strategy: Phase-based layout of low support
1. First Phase: Light position entry
- Reference Range: 3720-3770 (30-minute lower support).
- Logic: If the price stabilizes after retracing to this area, a short-term rebound can be speculated, targeting 3820-3850.
2. Second Phase: Opportunity to increase position
- Core Range: 3625-3665 (4-hour strong support during sideways movement).
- Logic: If there is a deep retracement to this area, combined with volume contraction or stabilization signals, a medium-term long position can be gradually established, targeting above 3700.
2. Short Strategy: Focus on high resistance and sentiment changes
1. Technical Pressure Points
- Key Range: 3800-3850 (previous high resistance and psychological level).
- Logic: If the price quickly surges above 3800 with shrinking volume, a light reverse position can be attempted, targeting 3750-3700.
2. News Coordination
- Potential Risk Events:
- A rebound in the U.S. dollar index may suppress risk assets (refer to the correlation logic between gold and the dollar);
- Regulatory dynamics (such as the U.S. SEC's stance on cryptocurrencies) may trigger market risk aversion.
3. Comprehensive Analysis of News
- Positive Factors:
- Overall technicals maintain a "sideways resistance" pattern, with the overall trend still leaning towards oscillating upward.
- If the dollar continues to weaken (e.g., rising expectations for a Fed rate cut), it may boost cryptocurrency prices.
- Negative Risks:
- Ethereum has dropped nearly 3% during the day; if it falls below 3700, it may trigger selling pressure, necessitating caution towards short-term downward inertia;
- The market has a corrective demand for "indicator dulling" at high levels, requiring prevention of technical retracements.
Summary: Follow the trend and respond flexibly
- Bulls: Build positions stepwise relying on the support zone of 3625-3770, avoiding chasing highs.
- Bears: Limited to quick entries and exits above 3800, needing coordination with signals of volume exhaustion.