Matrixport Research Report: Bitcoin May Enter a Consolidation Period in the Next 1 to 2 Months
On July 18, according to Matrixport's latest research report, recent favorable releases from U.S. policy, fiscal matters, and macro data have allowed Bitcoin to enter a new trading range.
Technical indicators show that the current Bitcoin price is close to the upper limit of its upward channel, which may suggest that the market could enter a consolidation phase in the next one to two months.
Over the past 18 months, Bitcoin's price has steadily risen approximately in steps of $16,000. This is because, in the first quarter, $106,000 was a clear resistance level for BTC, which transformed into a key support level as we entered the second quarter.
Based on this structure, $122,000 is the next reasonable target. Although Bitcoin recently briefly touched this level, it quickly retreated, indicating that the market may enter a phase of consolidation aimed at gathering momentum for the next trend upward.
Opinions suggest that considering Bitcoin may enter a consolidation period in the summer and that the next macro catalyst (such as a Federal Reserve rate cut) is still unclear, it is rational to moderately lock in some profits.
From a technical perspective, current technical indicators show that BTC has entered the overbought zone (RSI has broken 70), and multiple reversal signals are also showing signs of a pullback. If BTC pulls back to the $106,000-$108,000 range and stabilizes, it will relieve technical pressure and create conditions for the next upward movement. Therefore, if the market wants to maintain its upward trend, it still needs new catalysts to drive it.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the U.S. core CPI rose from 2.8% in April to 2.9% in July, with the increase lower than expected. The data from the past five releases have mostly been below expectations, indicating that the market may have overestimated inflation pressures.
Despite Trump’s continued pressure on the Federal Reserve, given that current inflation is still above the 2% target level and the overall economic performance is also better than expected. Therefore, the Federal Reserve lacked sufficient reasons to cut rates at the July meeting but may signal a potential intention to adjust rates in September.
Meanwhile, due to macro favorable factors such as the increase in the debt ceiling, growth in national debt, progress in stablecoin legislation, and inflation data falling short of expectations, coupled with panic buying from large investors, Bitcoin's short-term price has been pushed to a new high. Most of these investors have been net sellers over the past five years.