Today there are no major updates on the macro front... Still following the aftermath of yesterday's PPI... In addition, old Mei and Da Mao are meeting today... It's uncertain what the outcome will be... It may still have a greater impact on gold and similar assets... The impact on crypto should be limited...

Speaking of the whales, do you remember the whale with only 170,000 margin left, the 400 million brother? Recently, he lost again... Now only 30,000 left... Almost zero...

Thus, the three major whales bouncing in the first half of the year...

1) James had a record-high position of 1.2 billion long orders, resulting in a loss from a floating profit of 80 million to a net loss of 20 million, an overall loss of 100 million...

2) Insider brother, Old Chuan became famous with the strategic reserve announcement.. At one point, people speculated if he was the big son.. But later it calmed down after the on-chain box opening.. Subsequent trades indicated that he had no insider information and was just a big retail investor.. With a principal of 3 million, the highest floating profit was nearly 26 million.. Ultimately lost all 28.8 million, zeroing out and exiting...

3) Unlucky 400 million brother, every time he opens over 400 million long orders, he gets stopped.. Losing 30 million, then gaining back 30 million, then losing another 30 million, gaining back 10 million, after which 9 battles and 8 defeats... Last night the account was zeroed...

(But the 400 million brother still has the capital to make a comeback.. Previously, he made 10 million in the last wave, transferring 7 million to other platforms.. Let’s see if he will return after that..)

Back to today's technical aspects...

From the perspective of liquidity, yesterday there was a dual-clearance market driven by news.. Although it cleared below 11.80 for the past week.. It just touched the key support level of 11.7x, and a large amount of long liquidation liquidity accumulated below 11.70 instantly.. It seems there are still many traders betting on the 11.70 position...

Let’s discuss what 11.70 actually means...

1) Looking at the long term, from the distribution of Bitcoin URPD (which can be understood as on-chain turnover and holding cost distribution), the 11.7x 1000-point space has accumulated a turnover of 475,000 Bitcoins.. Among them, 11.78 is the second highest historical turnover after those early holdings below 1000 (185,000 coins turned over here), second only to the 21,1000 coins at 97800...

These cost funds constitute a solid support...

2) From a mid-term perspective, this is also the 30-day volume-weighted average price of spot and contract.. (This can be understood as the average holding cost line of the past 30 days, which is the cost data of users trading on the exchange, echoing the on-chain data above)

3) From an intraday perspective, this is also where today's large spot orders are placed (200-300 units).. Those spot funds that sold at yesterday's high are now looking to start placing orders again from 11.7W to make a swing...

So despite the false breakthrough of ATH yesterday followed by a significant drop.. As long as 11.7 is not broken, I think it is still in a large-range oscillation trend.. As long as 11.7 is not broken, the pattern will not change...

If it breaks, whether to judge a short-term bear market will require further analysis to determine whether this is caused by fundamentals (or macro) or short-term news or sentiment...

Moreover, in other aspects today... I learned a new reference indicator for USDC/USDT... For details, refer to Murphy from the University of Melbourne.

Currently, the exchange rate is clearly low, and the viewpoint of this strategy is that 'if the exchange rate suddenly drops significantly, it indicates that a large amount of USDC is being sold and exchanged for USDT, which likely means there is an 'intent to enter the market' for funds.'

Currently, the premium of spot currency contracts has risen sharply... This indicates that institutions are buying spot while retail investors are in short contracts...

At the same time, looking at the orders, there are still quite a few spot buy orders placed at 11.70w and 11.85w...

If we look at these factors together... At least there can still be an upward rebound here.. As for how high it goes, it's not very certain... After all, the gap from yesterday's PPI announcement has not been filled yet...

Finally, in today's strategy... We are still betting on the large buy order at 11.85w here.. 11.86w has already gone in, with a very narrow stop loss.. If the 11.85w order is eaten and does not pull back up, then run away.. If given the opportunity, still buy between 11.70~11.75... If it breaks 11.70 and does not pull back, then run away and observe the situation...

As for going short, it’s actually uncertain... The 120,000 level was broken when the PPI spike occurred... There wasn't enough turnover... So there may not be a holding pressure... Currently, there is also no order pressure, only the psychological pressure of the integer 120,000... So the first time considering it, I won't do it...

12.13~12.20w here should have a wave of pressure.. (This is also where I entered and lost yesterday) Trading dense area + breaker block.. But if the upward momentum is not enough, it may be rushed down at 12.10.. Because there is also a wave of trading here at 12.09 + the small previous high before the PPI spike...

So overall, if we really want to rebound to fill the gap this time.. It’s very difficult to go short.. The drop was too fast, and we need to test the upward pressure to know how big it is...