Let's first talk about the macro situation. Yesterday was a day of CPI speculation... Although the CPI unexpectedly came in lower than expected... the core CPI was actually higher than expected... The Federal Reserve actually places more importance on the core CPI... But regardless, the market is driven by money to decide its direction... After the news was released, the market directly interpreted it as positive...
Weak employment + mild inflation, this is paving the way for a rate cut in September... After yesterday's CPI announcement, the probability of a September rate cut soared to 93%... There were even expectations of a direct cut of 50bp in September... (However, despite this, Bitcoin did not take off much, while Ethereum had a wild night.)
Looking back at yesterday... I didn’t catch the long position... 11.80w is also too hard, right...? There was only about 100 Bitcoin's worth of spot orders supporting it, how can it hold with so many explorative attempts without liquidity?? In this kind of market, there's a high probability of one explanation: next week, the micro-strategy will announce that this week's cost line is at 11.80w...
However, the aggressive thought for shorting at 12W yesterday had no issues... However, I didn’t do it... One reason is that in the case of the CPI market choosing positive news, taking such an aggressive position carries some risk... Because at 12W, besides a bit of turnover, there aren’t any obvious resistance levels. There are no high or low point resistance levels and no order pressure levels... It’s purely turnover + the integer pressure level of 12W... Generally, in the absence of news-driven situations, the confidence level is relatively high... News-driven situations can easily break through. So even though the position reached yesterday, I still didn't do it... I placed orders higher around 12.1...
However, the market tells you that Bitcoin is still soft, and funds have all gone to Ethereum... So yesterday was still a day of no positions...
On the other hand, Ethereum... It was a night of both revelry and wailing... It feels like the main force behind the rally is still institutions, while retail investors are mostly wailing? Various attempts to short at the top have been educated...
I was also someone who has been educated, so I will not engage in Ethereum.
Back to today... In terms of liquidity, a large amount has already accumulated below 11.80... I will not enter long positions if it doesn't come here... Above, there is accumulation in the range of 12.05~12.13, and another wave above 12.25w, which is the previous high...
From the orders, the selling orders for spot are listed at 12.2w... There are also some short positions in contracts listed between 12.02~12.05... Below, contracts are still taking orders in the liquidity zone below 11.80w, with listings at 11.74 and 11.76...
Combining with the small previous high on the candlestick, these positions can actually be references for today's thinking...
Today's thinking... Still looking for a long position in the liquidity zone below 11.80w... Between 11.70~11.80 should be fine... But I'm not sure exactly where it will spike... 11.70 has a breaker block, and 11.73~11.74 has support from previous lows and the 30-day average holding cost. At the same time, 11.7x is also a turnover area for large on-chain positions. In the absence of obvious negative news, support here is still very strong. If it breaks 11.70 and can't bounce back, then I will leave... (Of course, the price may not give an opportunity, as many rushed out yesterday.)
(At the same time, if we are aggressive, there should be a move of 300-500 points during the day at the breaker block at 11.86, you can choose to take it or not, but you must control your losses.)
For high short positions, there are also two thoughts. The aggressive approach is between 12.02~12.08... This is the small previous high of 12.08w that hasn't been tested before + the short position of contract funds + the liquidity above 12.02 for the day... The exit point depends on the style, either place it at 12.10, which is the breakout point for the small previous high, or above the previous high of 12.25...
A safer approach is to place it directly between 12.15~12.20... The pressure here is greater, as it is the dense turnover area (stuck zone) from Monday's spike + the selling position at 12.20 + the short liquidity clearing position from the last three days + the small previous high resistance from the pullback...
Losses are also easier to manage, directly placing them at the previous high of 12.25... If it breaks and spikes without bouncing back, I will run...
