— Shout loudly, make vague statements, then observe reactions, assess costs, and decide whether to follow through.

Trump threatened that if Russia does not end its conflict with Ukraine, it will impose severe economic penalties on Russia.

Trump claimed during a meeting with NATO Secretary-General on Monday: 'If an agreement cannot be reached within 50 days, a 100% tariff will be imposed on Russia, and these tariffs will be implemented in the form of 'secondary tariffs.'

Firstly, Trump's threats may seem trivial, but the key lies in the term 'secondary tariffs'. It is not a direct sanction on Russia, but rather a blow to countries that 'do business with Russia', especially those buying Russian oil—this is a disguised form of 'secondary sanctions'. The U.S. president has previously used 'secondary tariffs' to describe tariffs imposed on countries trading with U.S. rivals.

When asked if Trump was referring to the more widely known 'secondary sanctions', Commerce Secretary Lutnick told reporters that sanctions and tariffs 'are both tools in the toolbox,' and 'you can use either one.'

Secondly, Trump's speech seemed to be 'full of hostility', but there is a lot behind it.

First, let's look at market performance: oil prices plummeted by 2%, the U.S. stock market slowly rose, while gold prices fell— the risks of the stock market's decline were easily alleviated because the worst-case scenario was avoided, interpreted as good news (the market saw through it in a second)—that is, 'Trump backed down again.' As early as last Friday, Trump had predicted a 'major statement' on the Russia issue, but after waiting a long time, it was found to be not immediately enforced (neither real sanctions nor new actions), more like TACO. Another 'if... then...' statement. Doesn't this scene look familiar?

Moreover, Trump still does not provide details or explain 'secondary tariffs', first creating momentum, then being flexible. Therefore, the market believes it might be more 'bluffing' than substantive action. In terms of escalating the situation, it could have been worse.

This also leads traders to wonder whether Trump will set a new deadline after August 1. If he repeatedly fails to deliver, it will become like the boy who cried wolf.