Michael Hartnett, the strategist at Bank of America, known as Wall Street's most accurate analyst, has issued a warning: the stock market's rise has been too rapid, and it is only one step away from a 'sell signal.'
He is not the type to sing bearish every day, but his warnings near highs are always worth paying attention to.
First, the S&P 500 index needs to rise above 6300 points (Note: the 6300-point warning line has technical significance, and many CTA quantitative funds and program trading 'take profit zones' are set in this area), which will trigger his 'sell alarm.' Currently, it is less than 0.3% away from this position (closing at 6279 points this week), basically just a 'slight push' to get there.
Second, using the term 'bubble' to describe it — as the House passes a $3.4 trillion tax cut fiscal plan, the risk of a bubble will rise in the summer (fiscal policy is accelerating towards a peak). Once the market goes crazy, it may continue to rise in the short term, but a stampede-like correction can easily occur in the end.
It's not just U.S. stocks; other markets are also in a critical state. Gold has repeatedly failed to break higher and volatility is decreasing; the dollar has 'broken down' to a three-year low; the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has tested the 4.20% level several times but has not fallen below it... a typical 'eve of a trend change.'
Even according to the market's own trends, a major reshuffle is already approaching. Now, with the 'deadline' for tariffs nearing, the market is in a technical, policy, and emotional 'three-line critical state.'
All risks will concentrate on an outbreak next week.#美国加征关税 $BTC
