Trump's 'tariff letter' has not arrived as scheduled, but it is not absent.

Trump claimed on Air Force One that he has signed letters to 12 countries outlining their different tariff levels, and these letters will be sent out on Monday (48 hours delayed).

First, the timing has changed from 'as early as Friday' to 'Monday,' but no specific time has been mentioned. According to his habit, it will either be after the U.S. stock market closes on Monday (before the Asian market opens on Tuesday) or during U.S. market hours, with the first scenario being slightly more likely.

Second, the delay in timing is to avoid the message being prematurely digested. Trump hopes that his tariff policy maintains its impact on the financial market—he does not want the market to become numb to the tariffs, losing his control (the tariffs have become a tool for managing expectations). Trump made a statement about the stock market on Saturday: 'The stock market is at an all-time high, and we will maintain it'—for someone who loves to show off and exaggerate, using the word 'maintain' (is somewhat cautious). From this statement, it appears that Trump may sacrifice further gains in U.S. stocks (just maintaining a high level is enough) in exchange for declines in other countries' markets, thereby forcing concessions from them. The ideal scenario is: U.S. stocks 'fluctuate at a high level while other countries' markets weaken,' creating psychological pressure through asset price comparisons. The logic behind the Federal Reserve's current battle against inflation is to influence the financial market, and Trump's tariff policy serves a similar purpose.

Third, as the July 9 deadline approaches, Trump will intensify threats to increase his bargaining chips, just as he did with Japan. Japan and the U.S. held two conference calls (one for 45 minutes and another for 1 hour), which Japan described as 'in-depth communication,' and no concessions had been made at the last minute.

Fourth, Trump claimed that tariff rates could range from 60%-70% to 10%-20%, which is more extreme than the tariffs announced on April 2. If tariffs rise to the levels he threatened, the average tariff on all U.S. imports could increase from nearly 3% before Trump's inauguration to about 20%, which would again interrupt the Federal Reserve's rate cut plans.

Monday will bring another storm.