July 11 BTC/ETH Major Coin and Altcoin Insights Analysis
Recent Market Overview
Funding behavior: BTC fell from 117500 to 116400, ETH retraced from 3010 to 2965, short-term profit-taking concentrated, funding structure gradually reshuffled;
Major News: The Federal Reserve clearly stated no interest rate cuts in July, and June CPI will be released this weekend/next Tuesday, with the August 1 tariff buffer about to expire, the market is entering a period of intensive policy;
Strategy Direction: Focus mainly on short positions, do not recommend low buying, marginal opportunities for altcoin recovery continue to follow up, if the structure opens up, a reversal will occur.
Market Sentiment & Liquidation Data
Market Greed/Fear Index: 72, clearly in the 'Greed' range, unchanged from yesterday's index, sentiment is hot but trading volume has not sustained upward movement
Number of liquidations in the past 24 hours: 238240 people, total liquidation amount: $1.137 billion, reflecting extremely high chasing risks, short positions have almost been liquidated.
Reviewing Overall Market
In yesterday's research report, Old Vine firmly pointed out the altcoin recovery; current situation verifies the structure: ETH broke 2,800 to reach 3,010, BTC also peaked from 112000, after a pullback during the Asian session, there was a crazy recovery breakthrough during the US session. At this stage, under the pressure of 'interest rate cut failure + CPI and tariff nodes', the structure is about to enter serious gaming.
Market Liquidation Map – Short Liquidations Almost Complete, Longs Expose Huge Risks
BTC short liquidations remaining at approximately $1.56 billion,
Long liquidations reach $20.923 billion,
This imbalance indicates extreme crowding among longs, while exposing the risk of 'triggering at any moment'; if the structure encounters policy or data alignment, the market will quickly reverse.
Focus on BTC Major Coin Trends
▸ Support Level:
First Support: 115200, Previous Day High Support
Second Support: 113600, Structure Adjustment Lower Boundary
▸ Resistance Level:
First Resistance: 117500, Intraday Spike First Target
Second Resistance: 119000, High Concentration Area for Long Liquidations
Strategy Recommendation (BTC): Only short positions are operable, can place shorts near 117500, if strongly pushing to 119000 also recommend shorting, with stop-loss set at 120000, do not recommend any low buying behavior.
Comparing ETH and Altcoin Trend Structures
▸ Support Level:
First Support: 2860, Short-term Pullback Position
Second Support: 2805, Structure Lower Boundary Confirmation
Resistance Level:
First Resistance: 3350 (Intraday Spike High)
Second Resistance: 3220 (Intense Long Liquidation Zone)
Strategy Recommendation (ETH): Only recommend short positions at 3350 or 3220, with stop-loss set at 3400; do not recommend low buying at support levels.
Focus on the Hottest Altcoin Sector and Performance Summary
TIA stabilizes at $1.50, with continuous funding attention;
POL chain upgrade hotspots continue to drive trading enthusiasm;
MEME/GAMING category coins continue to see funds flowing in, alongside airdrops or community events as marginal layouts.
Summary
Interest rate cut failure + CPI challenges + liquidation imbalance constitute the current oscillating turning point;
Extremely high liquidation amounts and concentration of shorts and longs indicate a crowded market, but potential energy still exists;
The only operational strategy axis: 'Only take short positions', low buying carries huge risks;
This weekend/next Tuesday's CPI release is a key trigger window, and the August 1 tariff node is also a trigger point;
Opportunities for altcoin recovery still exist, but focus on marginal allocation;
Old Vine emphasizes: Do not escape from the structural gaming stage, patiently wait for trigger confirmations, and then choose the timing for layout reversal.
