Crypto滕子京

Now I just noticed that bull markets are always accompanied by large sell-offs from Grayscale as a signal😂
At the beginning of 2024, Grayscale still held 610,000 BTC
Now it's 2025, and only 180,000 BTC are left after selling,
Want to understand why the more BTC in the market, the higher the price goes,
The more concentrated it is in institutions' hands, the more it falls?

#灰度基金

USD1 has unpegged, brothers, I suddenly thought of LUNA in 2022, brothers be careful
A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall

#USD1

ETH Position Analysis
In recent days, the trend of ETH has been relatively strong, consistently outperforming BTC. It is now once again trapped in a higher range of fluctuations. The significant on-chain minting of USDT and the substantial daily net inflow into ETFs have provided the market with ample confidence. Currently, it clearly belongs to a bullish trap, and one might consider entering a small short position around 3935, waiting for the evening news to ferment.

Support Levels Below:

First Support: 3760 (upper bound of the short-term range) previous pullback stagnation level

Second Support: 3685 (previous platform top + moving average support)

Resistance Levels Above:

First Resistance: 3975-3940 (current phase high point), a threshold for bulls to further gain momentum, historical next new high

Second Resistance: 4100 (macro historical trapped area), historical highest trapped point

Trading Advice for ETH:

Bearish approach; it’s more practical to short than to long. Unless we encounter another large player dumping or institutions offloading, we will see how the market sentiment reacts to the tariff and interest rate news before the 31st. Similarly, consider a short position at high levels, enter a small short position near 3940, add to the position around 4100, with a stop-loss at 4150. ETH is showing strong fluctuations, so only small positions should be shorted at high peaks.

#ETH重返3800

BTC Price Analysis

Yesterday, I was preparing to short after Bitcoin reached around 120,000, but unexpectedly, a wave of selling from ancient whales directly caused a drop. Currently, we can try to start placing short orders around 119,500 as the first position, and then add to the position around 120,300.
Support Levels:

First Support: 117,500 - A short-term multiple pin bar bottoming position; short positions can take half profit at this level.

Second Support: 115,800 - A frequently mentioned lower support point, which has been touched and rebounded multiple times.

First Resistance: 120,000 (previous high congestion area) - A volume breakout is needed to regain the main uptrend; this is considered a new high. Daily level has failed to break through four times.

Second Resistance: Around 120,800 (initial pin high point) - A volume breakout is needed to regain the main uptrend; this is also considered a new high.

Trading Advice for BTC:

I recommend maintaining a "bearish consolidation" trading rhythm:

The overall trend is turning bearish in the short term, so place short orders to enter the market, waiting for a pin bar to enter. Currently, we can try to start placing short orders around 119,500 as the first position, and then add to the position around 120,300. Set the stop loss below the new high at 121,300.
#BNB创新高

Market Data for Today 7/29
Market Sentiment
Greed/Fear Index: 74, but overall still in a明显 "Greed" range, market maintains high enthusiasm
Liquidation Data: In the past 24 hours, a total of 150,000 people have been liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 420 million dollars, two-level reversal, most of it fueled by Ethereum longs, a small portion by altcoins
Clearing Structure: Cumulative long liquidations in the past 30 days reached 21.7 billion dollars, shorts at 12 billion, longs continuously accumulating, shorts continuously being cleared and digested, and the short forces crazily increased threefold in the short term

#ETH重返3800

Interest Rate Decision, Non-Farm Data, Tariff Implementation - How to Interpret These Messages??

In the short term, continue to pay attention to the news

The interest rate decision at 2 AM on Thursday currently has a 96% chance of maintaining the interest rate unchanged.
The non-farm data will be released at 8:30 PM on Friday,
Non-farm employment higher than expected → Economy overheating → Delay in rate cuts → Currency price under pressure (bearish for the cryptocurrency market, bullish for the dollar)
Non-farm employment lower than expected → Economic recession → Advance rate cuts → Currency price increase (bullish for the cryptocurrency market, bearish for the dollar)
Tariff decision on Friday
Currently, two directions
Mainly looking at the implementation form of the tariff policy

Trump does not change his stance → Strong implementation of tariffs → Risk aversion → BTC large holders (whales) will sell off in response, market panic selling will temporarily drop to around 110,000-106,000 before rising again

Trump appears strong but secretly delays reconciliation → Soft implementation of tariffs continues to be negotiated → Risk appetite → ETH + altcoins rebound

Some peripheral news is expected to ferment in the next couple of days, and rumors may flow into the market in advance causing panic. Everyone can try to take small positions and go with the trend.

Ancient giant whales are intercepting high-position sell-offs, insider news is stirring. BTC/ETH faces new high threats again. Brothers, hold your chips and be ready to sell off and move.

Yesterday, as soon as the US-European tariff agreement came out, Bitcoin surged by $2000. On-chain data shows that whales took advantage of the rally to sell off 32,000 Bitcoins, directly crashing the price at a high position. We were waiting to place orders above 120,000, but unexpectedly, the whales acted without honor and intercepted us early.

Since yesterday afternoon, Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown a large-scale pullback, with the intraday maximum pullback approaching 2500 points. In the 4-hour timeframe, Ethereum has attempted to break through around 117,500 multiple times, failing three consecutive attempts, proving that there is a significant buying force at this position causing short-term resistance support. This trend is somewhat similar to last Thursday's intraday movement. Tonight, we can attempt to place orders near 119,500 for a high-position entry.

#BTC走势分析

Subjective expectations in the news are that speculation will start early on July 30th, pay more attention to news regarding tariffs, and there are three days left to wait for the market to settle, it is expected that the market will still have some upward momentum. Do not enter blindly.

Currently, the main direction for Bitcoin and altcoins is still focused on short positions, pay more attention to on-chain data.
The last sell-off by Sun has not yet ended, and there are still a large number of chips.

The big direction is to wait for the wind to come.

Main line is clear:

Clear out altcoins, need to heavily invest in the main line and lightly speculate.

Strategy remains unchanged: control position + structurally participate in the main line sector + avoid chasing high traps.

#ETH重返3800

Currently, I only hold one WCT coin. Brothers, if you hold other altcoins, it is still recommended to try to liquidate or cut your holdings in half before July 30th. The simultaneous release of three major news events may pose a risk of a bank run. Highest precaution advised

#wct

BTC Trend Breakdown
Trading Suggestions for ETH:

Lower Support Levels:

First Support: 3700 (upper edge of short-term range) previous pullback stagnation level

Second Support: 3575 (previous platform top + moving average support)

Upper Resistance Levels:

First Resistance: 3975-3950 (current short-term high), threshold for further bullish volume, historical second new high

Second Resistance: 4100 (macro historical holding zone), historical highest holding point

Trading Suggestions for ETH:

Short selling strategy, bullish is not as practical as bearish; unless we encounter a large sell-off or institutions dumping again in the short term, we will just look at the tariff and interest rate news before the 31st to drive market sentiment through speculation.

#ETH重返3800

BTC Trend Analysis

Support Levels:
First Support: 116800 EMA52 four-hour level minor support, short positions can take half profits at this level
Second Support: 115800 frequently mentioned lower support point, repeatedly tested rebound position
First Resistance: 120000 (previous high dense area), needs significant volume breakthrough to regain main uptrend, considered a new high.
Second Resistance: around 120800 (previous initial closing high), needs significant volume breakthrough to regain main uptrend, considered a new high.
Trading Suggestion for BTC:
I suggest maintaining a "consolidation with a bearish bias" trading rhythm:
The major trend has turned bearish in the short term, place short orders to enter the market, wait for a dip before entering, and set a stop-loss below the new high of 121300.

Last week's long position at 115800 was initially thought to be at risk, but it barely missed getting stopped out, just right for a rebound, reaching the highest position with a gain of 4000 points.

BTC: The big pie has been emphasizing the back-and-forth fluctuations around 120,000 and 115,000. We mentioned in last Friday's research report and video that we would trade through these back-and-forth fluctuations. This time, after touching the support below on Friday, there was a major cycle rebound. Currently, the market is trying again to challenge 120,000. Although there has been a slight pullback, everyone can try to place orders for high-level fluctuations. During the day, the big pie may pull back to around 118,200 and then attempt to rebound to challenge 120,000 again.

ETH: Compared to the big pie, the second pie's trend is relatively strong, having rebounded from Friday to reach a peak increase of nearly 10%. Moreover, it has once again broken through this year's new high today. With the current slight pullback, chasing shorts could be somewhat dangerous, but there is strong resistance around 3,970 above. There may be an opportunity to rebound to around 3,965 today, where one could consider entering a short position.

#BNB创新高

Market Sentiment
Greed/Fear Index: 74, but overall still in a clearly 'Greed' range, sentiment is still quite high, most people continue to be bullish

Liquidation Data: A total of 94,000 people were liquidated in 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of 255 million dollars, two-level reversal, most of them fueled by Ethereum, a small portion by altcoins

Liquidation Structure: Cumulative long liquidations within 30 days reached 22.5 billion dollars, short liquidations 11.1 billion, long positions continue to accumulate, short positions continue to be cleared and digested, short forces have crazily increased in the short term by three times

#美国与欧盟达成关税协议

The United States and the European Union have reached a 15% tariff agreement

My personal objective opinion is that the same trap cannot be used twice by Trump. The US-EU agreement only eliminates some local uncertainties; August 1 is the real day of tariff judgment.

I suggest that brothers control their total positions to below 50% by July 30, whether in spot or contracts, to avoid risks. After all, the impact of interest rate decisions, non-farm payroll data, and the implementation of reciprocal tariffs can hit the market.

Focus on monitoring the progress of China-US economic and trade consultations and the movements of BTC whales on the chain. You can pay more attention to the latest news on Jinshi Data and Golden Finance to prevent market surges.

On Friday, institutions dumped their holdings, causing a panic in the market. On Saturday and Sunday, there was a rebound, and the market flourished. One can only say that the current market is behaving rather randomly, with institutions, large players, and ancient whales all stepping in to spread panic in the market and then reap profits.

At 1 AM today, according to Golden News, the United States and the European Union reached a 15% tariff agreement. First, let's not discuss the authenticity of this news and whether it can be implemented on August 1st.

Now that this news of tariff reconciliation has come out, I am completely taken aback. It feels somewhat similar to July 7th, where news came out early to influence the market, and then it exploded.

My personal objective view is that the same trap cannot be used twice by Trump. The US-EU agreement only eliminates partial uncertainties; August 1st is the real judgment day for tariffs.

I advise my brothers, whether in spot or contracts, to keep their total position below 50% before July 30th to avoid risk, especially with the impacts of the interest rate decision, non-farm payroll data, and the equal tariff implementation.

Key monitoring should focus on the progress of China-US economic and trade negotiations and the movements of BTC whales on-chain. It's advisable to pay attention to the latest news on Jinshi Data and Golden Finance to prevent sudden market attacks.

#ETH重返3800

What is going on here?
Previously, the focus was mainly on the EU, and now there are subtle advancements with the EU again.
This is treating the market like a cash cow.
Will the situation from July 9th repeat itself??

#对等关税

Scared to death 114667, almost got stopped out at the lowest point,
this wave was another three thousand points of old blood, yo-yo,
constantly emphasizing the fluctuation in the 120000-158000 range
let's find another opportunity to come in and out,

#BTC

The ball is complete, ETH has gone to zero

#ETH