Recent market conditions
The market continues to rise, attempting to break above 120000 in the past five days has ended in failure, forming strong resistance above. The current market is highly heated, major stablecoin operators are constantly increasing their bets, liquidity is continuously injected, and the current market turning point is after the tax slowdown on August 1st.
ETH remains strong, today breaking through 3674 daily line level for more than half a month, weekly level also starts with four consecutive days of gains, poised to surge into the previous high area at any time. This round of upward rhythm is clear, shifting from previously stagnant coins to 'rebounds of main rising' coins.
BTC and ETH continue to differentiate in the short term, while the market main line is quietly shifting from mainstream to certain on-chain ecosystem targets, especially around the liquidity injection rhythm of the SOL chain.
Market sentiment
Greed/Fear Index: 72, slightly retreated from yesterday, but overall still in a clear 'greed' zone.
Liquidation data: 160,000 people liquidated in the past 24 hours, total liquidation amount is 800 million dollars, still fueled by shorts, with a small portion from altcoins
Liquidation structure: cumulative long liquidations in 30 days reached 20.7 billion dollars, shorts only 4.5 billion, longs continue to accumulate while shorts are continuously cleared.
Review the overall market
This round of market is driven by BTC's breakthrough, but due to the lack of further macro positive news, it has overall entered a high position oscillation stage. ETH relies on L2 and ETF narratives, continuously increasing volume and forming a main upward wave.
More importantly, on-chain liquidity is showing structural changes:
USDC is massively destroyed on the Ethereum chain, while simultaneously reissuing hundreds of millions of dollars on the Solana chain.
USDT is continuously issued on the Ethereum chain.
This means:
USDC is increasing investment in the Solana ecosystem, USDT continues to inject funds into the Ethereum chain.
This is actually a hedge game of on-chain liquidity:
USDT flows back to Ethereum, supporting ETH's continued main rise structure.
USDC injects funds into SOL, helping the Solana altcoin ecosystem enter the rebound window.
Currently, ETH has entered an independent market, while the SOL chain ecosystem is becoming a potential successor direction, it is recommended to focus on and layout in advance.
BTC trend disassembly
Support level:
First support: 118500 (24EMA support + short-term stabilization platform), I will observe whether a bullish divergence forms at this point.
Second support: 117000 (MA52 + previous wave pullback low), breaking this level would likely test the lower edge of the channel.
Resistance level:
First resistance: 120000 (previous high dense area + BOLL middle track suppression), a touchstone for short-term bulls, breaking above for a week ends in shooting star candles.
Second resistance: around 123000 (previous major drop starting point), needs to break through with volume to regain major rise.
Operational advice for BTC:
I suggest maintaining a 'sideways bearish' operational rhythm:
If it rebounds to the 120000-120300 range, you can try shorting, stop loss placed at 121000.
If it pulls back to around 117000-115800, observe for lower buying opportunities, stop loss placed at 115500, if broken, then wait for the 114000 area to stabilize.
Current high position stagnation structure, the market is mainly in a box-type oscillation, conduct limit order operations in the range, do not chase market orders.
Operational advice for ETH:
Lower support level:
First support: 3515–3495 (short-term box upper edge) previous pullback stagnation level.
Second support: 3410-3360 (previous platform top + moving average support)
Upper resistance level:
First resistance: 3700 (current phase high point), is the threshold for bulls to further increase volume.
Second resistance: 3740 (macro historical trapped area), pay attention to the risk of a pullback after reaching.
Operational advice for ETH:
ETH strongly breaks through the box, maintaining a bullish outlook:
Do not look at altcoins, the trend is too urgent and is not suitable for trading without reference points, the risk is high, just do synchronous altcoin rebounds.
Altcoin sector
TOTAL3 is currently oscillating in the 68% range, has not yet broken the previous high, but the structure is still strong, with clear local hotspot rotations.
Combining the opinions of market bloggers and on-chain capital flows, it is recommended to focus on altcoin directions:
SOL ecosystem is rising strongly
USDC large-scale issuance injects funds into Solana, the next emotional explosion window:
JTO (MEV narrative + staking yield liquidity staking service provider)
WIF (representative of meme coins on the Solana chain)
JUP (DEX track attention continues)
ETH L2 sector is expected to rebound
USDT injected into the Ethereum chain, L2 ecosystem received support:
ARB, OP (established L2 leaders, building momentum at low levels)
ZK, ENA, MANTA (new narratives, new directions)
SSV Ethereum's infrastructure
Established consensus coins may rebound
As TOTAL3 approaches a breakthrough, it is recommended to continue tracking:
LINK/TRB (leading oracle)
INJ (technology + AI narrative)
TIA (core of Celestia modular sector)
Summary and operational advice
BTC is still in a high position oscillation structure, it is recommended to follow the box strategy of 'short high and buy low', do not chase the rise.
ETH's strong structure continues, buy on dips, short only on stagnation.
Market structural rotation is evident, chasing hotspots is not as good as pre-positioning.
Main line is clear:
SOL chain injects liquidity, ecosystem coins welcome rebound window.
ETH L2 continues the main rise with the help of USDT injection.
Altcoin structure is diverging, need to heavily invest in the main line, lightly speculate.
Strategy remains unchanged: control positions + structurally participate in main line sectors + avoid chasing high traps + stagnation altcoin bottom layout.
Review the overall market
This round of market is driven by BTC's breakthrough, but due to the lack of further macro positive news, it has overall entered a high position oscillation stage. ETH relies on L2 and ETF narratives, continuously increasing volume and forming a main upward wave.
More importantly, on-chain liquidity is showing structural changes:
USDC is massively destroyed on the Ethereum chain, while simultaneously reissuing hundreds of millions of dollars on the Solana chain.
USDT is continuously issued on the Ethereum chain.
This means:
USDC is increasing investment in the Solana ecosystem, USDT continues to inject funds into the Ethereum chain.
This is actually a hedge game of on-chain liquidity:
USDT flows back to Ethereum, supporting ETH's continued main rise structure.
USDC injects funds into SOL, helping the Solana altcoin ecosystem enter the rebound window.
Currently, ETH has entered an independent market, while the SOL chain ecosystem is becoming a potential successor direction, it is recommended to focus on and layout in advance.
BTC trend disassembly
Support level:
First support: 118500 (24EMA support + short-term stabilization platform), I will observe whether a bullish divergence forms at this point.
Second support: 117000 (MA52 + previous wave pullback low), breaking this level would likely test the lower edge of the channel.
Resistance level:
First resistance: 120000 (previous high dense area + BOLL middle track suppression), a touchstone for short-term bulls, breaking above for a week ends in shooting star candles.
Second resistance: around 123000 (previous major drop starting point), needs to break through with volume to regain major rise.
Operational advice for BTC:
I suggest maintaining a 'sideways bearish' operational rhythm:
If it rebounds to the 120000-120300 range, you can try shorting, stop loss placed at 121000.
If it pulls back to around 117000-115800, observe for lower buying opportunities, stop loss placed at 115500, if broken, then wait for the 114000 area to stabilize.
Current high position stagnation structure, the market is mainly in a box-type oscillation, conduct limit order operations in the range, do not chase market orders.
Operational advice for ETH:
Lower support level:
First support: 3515–3495 (short-term box upper edge) previous pullback stagnation level.
Second support: 3410-3360 (previous platform top + moving average support)
Upper resistance level:
First resistance: 3700 (current phase high point), is the threshold for bulls to further increase volume
Second resistance: 3740 (macro historical trapped area), pay attention to the risk of a pullback after reaching.
Operational advice for ETH:
ETH strongly breaks through the box, maintaining a bullish outlook:
Do not look at altcoins, the trend is too urgent and is not suitable for trading without reference points, the risk is high, just do synchronous altcoin rebounds.
Altcoin sector
TOTAL3 is currently oscillating in the 68% range, has not yet broken the previous high, but the structure is still strong, with clear local hotspot rotations.
Combining the opinions of market bloggers and on-chain capital flows, it is recommended to focus on altcoin directions:
SOL ecosystem is rising strongly
USDC large-scale issuance injects funds into Solana, the next emotional explosion window:
JTO (MEV narrative + staking yield liquidity staking service provider)
WIF (representative of meme coins on the Solana chain)
JUP (DEX track attention continues)
ETH L2 sector is expected to rebound
USDT injected into the Ethereum chain, L2 ecosystem received support:
ARB, OP (established L2 leaders, building momentum at low levels)
ZK, ENA, MANTA (new narratives, new directions)
SSV Ethereum's infrastructure
Established consensus coins may rebound
As TOTAL3 approaches a breakthrough, it is recommended to continue tracking:
LINK/TRB (leading oracle)
INJ (technology + AI narrative)
TIA (core of Celestia modular sector)
Summary and operational advice
BTC is still in a high position oscillation structure, it is recommended to follow the box strategy of 'short high and buy low', do not chase the rise.
ETH's strong structure continues, buy on dips, short only on stagnation.
Market structural rotation is evident, chasing hotspots is not as good as pre-positioning.
Main line is clear:
SOL chain injects liquidity, ecosystem coins welcome rebound window.
ETH L2 continues the main rise with the help of USDT injection.
Altcoin structure is diverging, need to heavily invest in the main line, lightly speculate.
Strategy remains unchanged: control positions + structurally participate in main line sectors + avoid chasing high traps + stagnation altcoin bottom layout.
