$BTC
The current trend is highly controversial; is it a huge surge or a high-level trap?
First scenario: After completing the current wedge adjustment, it breaks directly above 110500 and then moves towards a major surge in the big C wave.
Second scenario: From the perspective of capital flow, the current spot prices are decreasing compared to futures prices, and the positions are not favorable.
Additionally, it is uncertain on the macro front; tariffs are likely to cause a shock, which may lead to an initial drop before rising again.
The market has indeed reached a bottleneck, unlike before when there were daily fluctuations of several thousand points.
Although this surge is strong, it has been oscillating at high levels since then, moving from 110500 to the current 107300, with only a total space of about three thousand points, resembling a normal retracement adjustment.
Today, it dropped to 107300 during the session but managed to hold up, and has even shown a slight rebound, indicating that the support below is becoming increasingly solid.
Next, we will watch 107000. If it breaks below this level, it is expected to drop even faster; however, if it keeps dropping but does not break this point, it may reverse and surge upwards to test the highs again.
In the short term, keep an eye on 109500. If it cannot break through or stabilize, it is highly likely to continue to drop further.
Since a rebound has already started today, we will focus on the rebound strategy for the day, going long for the long position and short for the short position, with emphasis on whether the pressure above can hold.
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