Master talks about hot topics:
Come on, today it is necessary to look at a set of data first, with 175 million inflows in the spot market and 1.1 billion directly poured into contracts, contract/spot close to 10:1, can't you understand this? It’s not that institutions are hoarding; rather, the main force is using contracts to drive the market and clear short liquidity.
Yesterday's sharp rise and last week's consolidation worked in harmony. First breaking 105K to clear the longs, then pulling back to explode the shorts, both sides got cut, retail against retail. Now, don’t be fooled by the price still being high; in fact, the main force is waiting for the next wave of liquidity.
Many people see a sharp rise and get excited, thinking there’s some super good news, but there really isn't. Currently, if it cannot hold 110.2K in the next couple of days, it’s highly likely to reverse and pull back, so tonight's non-farm data is crucial.
Good non-farm data means the market is not afraid of recession, and it can also speculate on interest rate cuts to continue driving the market. If the data is too good, there will be concerns about overheating, and interest rate cuts must be delayed. If the data is too poor, there will be concerns about recession, and it won't be good either.
So precisely neutral data is the best catalyst; once paired, breaking 110.2K will be a natural progression, opening the door to a space above 30,000 points.
Back to the market, from a structural perspective, Bitcoin's current fourth wave from 74.6K has not yet completed. If it stands firmly at 110.2K, it will be the starting point for the next main upward wave. But if this wave fails, 110.2K will become a trap for the bulls.
After the rise, it will pull back, testing 108.8K or even 105.1K. Pay special attention: if 105.1K is broken, it will mean a direct leg down, and all bulls will exit the market.
Let’s talk about the liquidation zone; currently, liquidity is concentrated at 103K below, while short liquidity is evenly distributed above. It doesn’t help to say the liquidation zone might have leveled; the key is how the relative strength is distributed now. Where the chips are dense, it’s easier to be cleared; the main force will work in that direction.
So the current rhythm is to buy on the dips, don't chase highs. If tonight's non-farm data drops to 107.6K, it might be a good opportunity, but if that breaks, don’t hesitate to pull out; even if the market isn't finished, you must prioritize your safety.
Master looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 119600
First resistance level: 109000
Support level reference:
Second support level: 108500
First support level: 107800
Bitcoin has entered a correction phase after breaking 109K, overall still operating within an upward channel. If it maintains a range between 108.5K and 109K, it still looks bullish in the short term.
If 109K breaks through again and stands firm, you need to pay attention to the possibility of repeated fluctuations above. During the day, you can focus on the support around 108.5K and the dynamics of the 20-day moving average. The upward trend line has marked segments 1, 2, and 3; the current pullback is expected to constitute the fourth segment, which is also a new low-buy opportunity.
First resistance level 109K is an important psychological barrier; if it breaks through and stands firm again, it may quickly test the 110K area. At this time, external news and changes in trading volume must be considered for comprehensive judgment.
The second resistance level 109.6K is yesterday's high; if it successfully breaks through and reaches a new high, it may trigger a new round of upward momentum. Given that there was already a large increase yesterday, the current pullback phase can be seen as another opportunity to re-enter.
First support level 108.5K is the support level transformed from previous highs, there is a risk of being broken in the short term. If a brief break occurs but the K-line closes with a lower shadow line holding the support, it can be regarded as a technical pullback.
The second support level 107.8K is a secondary support after the first support is broken, combined with the third segment's upward trend line, it is a key value-for-money buying area. It can be paired with the dynamic behavior of the 120MA and 200MA mid-to-long-term moving averages for phased response.
7.3 Master’s segment setup:
Long entry reference: Buy in the range of 108000-108500, target: 109000-109600
Short entry reference: Break below 107800 to short, target: 105000
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you have to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few looks at the market. This market is filled with performers, with screenshots of long positions today and summaries of short positions tomorrow, seemingly 'catching tops and bottoms every time', but in reality, it's all after the fact. A blogger worth paying attention to will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and stands up to scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to distinguish who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
