In the field of cryptocurrency investment, the average transaction amount per transaction (in USD) is an important measure of large capital participation. Generally, an increase in the average transaction amount of Bitcoin symbolizes frequent trading of large-scale funds, often accompanied by a strong price increase.
Historical data shows that when the average transaction amount of Bitcoin reaches a peak, if it starts to level off or decline, the price trend usually enters a consolidation range. Once adverse macroeconomic factors appear and market panic spreads, the price of Bitcoin will quickly turn down, with the extent of the decline depending on the degree of market panic.
Reviewing this market cycle, the trend of Bitcoin breaking historical highs three times is highly consistent with the above-mentioned rules on a data level. Currently, the average transaction amount of Bitcoin has dropped to $37,432, below the previous peak of $39,172, showing clear signs of leveling off or declining.
Combining this data performance, the market's short-term trend is gradually becoming clear: in the absence of major macroeconomic negative shocks, Bitcoin is likely to continue its range-bound oscillation. The current market situation resembles the oscillation period from April to July 2024, which feels quite 'grinding'.
When will the market break the deadlock? The answer may lie in the emergence of the next major positive event. Only when positive news stimulates a rebound in fund activity and releases market liquidity can Bitcoin expect to enter a new upward cycle.#比特币