July 2, 2025

In a recent public statement, Powell has relaxed his stance on interest rate cuts in July, not expressing as strongly as before that high rates will be maintained, but instead saying it depends on economic data. If there is a rate cut in July, it will undoubtedly bring a moderate benefit to the market, but the specific performance of the stock market will also depend on the flow of funds. There is no doubt that currently, whether in the stock market or the cryptocurrency space, investors do have funds on hand, but their confidence is limited.

From this perspective, the market has certain upward potential, as the yield on stablecoins has dropped to an absurdly low level, even lower than the yields on U.S. Treasuries. Investors hold a large amount of stablecoins, but there are no good investment opportunities, so they can only engage in wealth management. However, the cryptocurrency space has always been a place of intense speculative sentiment; even if a larger proportion of these funds are rational, I can assure you that once the market heats up, most funds will start acting irrationally.

In terms of market trends, Bitcoin's volatility is absurdly low, and the key is that this state has persisted for a long time. From the previous pullbacks, the downward space is limited. For a significant drop, I believe it would require a conducive environment, such as a sharp decline or even a crash in the U.S. stock markets. Conversely, I think the upward potential is even larger; sideways movement is actually accumulating energy, and once it breaks through the resistance level, there is potential above.

This resistance level is $110,000, which has failed to break through multiple times before. Based on past experiences, the best breakout scenario would be a strong bullish candle that breaks through directly, leaving no opportunity for trend followers. It is hard to say when it will break through, but it surely won't give everyone too many warnings; it might just be that it stays sideways for a while, and then suddenly a strong bullish candle appears.

Thank you for your attention and likes.