July 12, 2025

The market continues to consolidate at high levels. Generally speaking, we treat this kind of upward consolidation as a continuation of the bullish trend, meaning we remain optimistic. The consolidation process is aimed at digesting profit-taking, preparing for future upward movement. In terms of timing, this position has basically broken through; in terms of price, it has not completely escaped the pressure zone, but the new space is already worth looking forward to. From a timing perspective, starting now is not too early, and it might even be a bit late, as the upward fluctuation may still take a few months.

At this position, whether to consider selling some positions, my understanding is that it is possible. One could sell 10% of the position or trade for short-term gains. A larger logic is that even if the overall market is bullish in the second half of the year, it is also not suitable to increase funds for buying, because from the on-chain data of Bitcoin, large holders are generally in a selling state. As for why large holders are selling while Bitcoin's price continues to reach new highs, it is mainly because traditional funds led by MicroStrategy are entering the market, but this buying pressure will certainly exhaust one day. Although it may not happen soon, I believe that if a bullish market materializes in the second half of this year, it is still necessary to take profit with large positions.

Tonight there is a PUMP launching. The public sale will be at 10 PM on secondary platforms like Gate and Bybit, priced at 0.004. According to the current price on Binance of 0.005, there is nearly a 30% profit margin. Therefore, if one manages to buy in and then hedge, or hedge in advance, theoretically, stable profits can be achieved. Of course, since the futures market does not have spot pricing as a base, but instead calculates the marked price based on self-executed prices, there is a possibility of manipulation by the main players.

Another point that puzzles me is that the pre-contract price for PUMP on Hype is about 5 points higher than the pre-contract price on Binance. As long as the main players do not maliciously manipulate the price, theoretically, this 5% price difference can also be arbitraged. It is said that unusual situations often indicate something strange, but I can't figure out why this is the case. Could it be that investors are worried that the project side of PUMP will maliciously manipulate the contract price, thus refraining from arbitrage? The only scenario I can think of is this, as I believe that the value of PUMP is not worth 0.004 USD at all.

Thank you for your attention and likes.